Florida State vs. Duke Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 8

Reed Wallach | 5 Hours Ago

Sep 14, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Maalik Murphy (6) prepares to throw the football during the first half of the game against Connecticut at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images / Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Florida State and Duke meet on Friday night ACC action in a role reversal for each team. 

Duke is out to a 5-1 start under first year head coach Manny Diaz while Florida State is 1-5 in what will be a lost season after an undefeated regular season in 2023. Both teams are out of a BYE week, and has the market shifted too far against the Seminoles as the team hits the road for an ACC matchup? 

Here’s our full betting preview. 

Florida State vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Florida State: +3.5 (-120)
• Duke: -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Florida State: +134
• Duke -162

Total: 42.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida State vs. Duke How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 18th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Florida State Record: 1-5
• Duke Record: 5-1

Florida State vs. Duke Key Players to Watch

Florida State

Brock Glenn: Glenn made his first start of the season ahead of the BYE week, and while it was a losing effort it was a reassuring performance from the new QB1. He had 228 passing yards with two passing touchdowns and an interception against an elite Clemson team. With another week to get acclimated to the offense, can Glenn help get the Seminoles on track. 

Duke

Maalik Murphy: Murphy is completing 60% of his passes with 14 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. While he hasn’t been stellar in his first season at Duke, he has done more than enough to navigate the team’s easy schedule to date. Can he find answers against an FSU defense that has an aggressive pass rush but checks in outside the top 100 in EPA/Play. 

Florida State vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

This is a game that has surprising records attached to both teams. 

While it’s tough to back Florida State to stay competitive against any team, Duke is being vastly overrated. The team hasn’t beat a team inside the top half of the country in terms of net EPA/Play. 

Now, Florida State is a far cry from that, but does still have talent on both sides of the ball as well as the ability to possibly be recovering from its rock bottom rating. With Glenn taking over, I believe there is potential upside to this team against a Duke team I don’t rate very highly. 

However, I can’t trust the Seminoles to cover a small point spread, but I’ll instead side with the under. 

Florida State’s path to winning will be a reduced tempo and limiting mistakes while leaning on a defense that has 17 sacks (19th in the country). 

Meanwhile, Duke’s offense has been poor all season, 104th in EPA/Play and outside the top 125 in EPA/Rush. 

I think this game is a defensive struggle, I’ll side with the under. 

PICK: UNDER 42.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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