Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, January 4th

Reed Wallach | Jan 3, 2025

Dec 21, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Lamont Butler (1) sets the play while being defended by Ohio State Buckeyes guard Ques Glover (6) during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images / John Jones-Imagn Images

Two of the SEC contenders meet in a marquee matchup on a loaded day of college hoops on Saturday when Florida takes its unbeaten record to Lexington, Kentucky to take on the Wildcats. 

Kentucky has played a vaunted schedule to date and has thrived under first year head coach Mark Pope, paced by an elite offense that surrounds San Diego State transfer Lamont Butler. Can the Wildcats challenge a like-minded, fast-paced Florida team? 

Here’s our betting preview for this SEC matchup. 

Florida vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Florida: +2.5 (-102)
• Kentucky: -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Florida: +128
• Kentucky: -145

Total: 163.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 4th
• Game Time: 11:00 AM EST
• Venue: Rupp Arena
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Florida Record: 13-0
• Kentucky Record: 11-2

Florida vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Florida

Walker Clayton: Clayton has been quiet of late, scoring 12 or fewer points in the last three games amidst limited usage, but will look to go toe-to-toe with Butler and the high octane Kentucky offense. On the season, Clayton is averaging 17 points, three rebounds and three assists on 46% shooting  from the field.

Kentucky

Lamont Butler: The senior guard has been doing it all this season, posting 56/41/66 shooting splits with 13 points to go with four assists and nearly two steals per game. After a quiet game recently against Ohio State in which he took only seven shots and made one in a blowout loss on a neutral court, Butler will look to start strong in SEC play.

Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

These two teams feature quite a gap in strength of schedule as Florida is yet to play a top 30 team in KenPom while Kentucky has played four already. 

However, this number is baked into the spread as the Wildcats are a small home favorite against the undefeated Gators. 

Instead, I’ll look for the over in this matchup of two fast-paced offenses. 

Both defenses are ripe for some regression on that side of the ball, each ranking inside the top 10 in three-point percentage allowed. I believe that both can find answers in this regard, both above average shooting the rock. 

Further, the pace should be frenetic in this one. Both teams are top 25 in average offense possession length and are consistently looking for quick scoring opportunities, both averaging top 100 transition rates. To that point, neither defense is in the top 100 in turnover percentage, so I expect plenty of shots to go up in this one. 

It’s tough to get a gauge on what Florida can do against elite competition given its poor strength of schedule, but Kentucky has been prone to getting into high scoring affairs against elite offenses. The Gonzaga game went to overtime and featured 179 points (159 points in regulation) and its games against Louisville and Ohio State featured 85 points against its opponents. 

In a high possession affair, I’ll bank on offenses to prevail and go over the total.

PICK: OVER 163.5 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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