France vs. Germany Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Olympic Basketball Semifinals

A trip to the gold medal game is on the line for France and Germany. Who should we bet on?

Germany guard Franz Wagner. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest upset of the 2024 Olympics may have come in the quarterfinals, as Victor Wembanyama and France knocked off Canada, who was No. 2 in the odds to win the gold medal this summer, to advance to the semifinals against Germany on Thursday.

France struggled in the group stage, nearly losing to Japan (it ended up winning in overtime), but Victor Wembanyama and company turned things up in the knockout stage, riding a big fourth quarter from Evan Fournier and 22 points from former first-round pick Guerschon Yabusele to a win.

Wemby was just 2-for-10 from the field in the win, but France’s supporting cast stepped up in a big way, making Thursday’s semifinal against Germany an extremely intriguing contest. 

Germany, the No. 2 seed in the field, won a low-scoring game against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece in the quarterfinals, riding 18 points from Franz Wagner and 13 points and eight dimes from Dennis Schroder to a 13-point win. 

The 2023 FIBA World Cup champions, Germany is looking to win another gold medal in Paris, and oddsmakers have it favored to make the gold medal game over the host country. 

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for this semifinal matchup on Thursday. 

France vs. Germany Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• France +5 (-105)
• Germany -5 (-115)

Moneyline

• France: +164
• Germany: -198

Total

• 157 (Over -112/Under -108)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

France vs. Germany How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Aug. 8
• Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
• Venue: Bercy Arena
• How to Watch (TV): USA Network, Peacock
• France record: 3-1
• Germany record: 4-0

France vs. Germany Key Players to Watch

France

Evan Fournier: Guard play has been a major issue for France this summer, but Fournier, who came off the bench against Canada, finally found something in the quarterfinals. The NBA veteran shot 4-for-8 from the field and 3-for-6 from 3 to score 15 points, by far his best game of the Olympics. Fournier’s shooting could be a massive difference for France in the semis. 

Germany

Franz Wagner: There’s no doubt that Franz Wagner has been a star for Germany in the Olympics, and he put up 18 points on 8-for-17 shooting in 37 minutes against Greece on Tuesday. Wagner is the clear No. 1 option for Germany, and he’ll need to carry a big load on offense against a stout France frontcourt that features Wemby and Rudy Gobert as rim protectors. 

France vs. Germany Prediction and Pick

It’s been a fun run for France this summer, but I think it comes to an end against the defending FIBA World Cup champions.

There is a ton of continuity with this Germany team, which has helped it this summer, and the guard play of Schroder is something that France simply doesn’t have on offense. 

Canada had awful shooting games from Dillon Brooks (1-for-9) and Jamal Murray (3-for-13) in the loss to France, while Fournier and Yabusele played their best games of the Olympics, the perfect formula for France to pull off an upset. 

I’m not sold on the same outcome on Thursday. 

Germany has two NBA-level bigs in Daniel Theis and Moe Wagner to match up with Wembanyama and Gobert down low, and Franz Wagner has been one of the best scorers in the entire Olympics. 

Even though it knocked off Canada, let’s not forget that France barely beat Japan and already has a 14-point loss to this Germany team in pool play. 

I’ll gladly lay the points with Germany on Thursday. 

Pick: Germany -5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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