France vs. Japan Olympic Basketball Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Group B

Can France move to 2-0 in men's basketball pool play?

France power forward Victor Wembanyama. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Victor Wembanyama and France’s men’s basketball team got off to a solid start in pool play at the 2024 Olympics, knocking off Brazil to put itself in a solid position to advance to the knockout stage. 

The next step for that to happen would be picking up a win over Japan – one of the lesser teams in the Olympic field – on Tuesday. Japan lost its pool play opener by 20 to Germany, and France is heavily favored on Tuesday to hand Rui Hachiumara and company another loss. 

While France has much higher hopes than simply advancing out of pool play, there are some things it needs to fix after a disappointing start against Brazil. 

Here’s a look at the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Tuesday's Group B matchup. 

France vs. Japan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• France -17.5 (-108)
• Japan +17.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• France: -2400
• Japan: +1200

Total 

• 163.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

France vs. Japan How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 30
• Time: 11:15 a.m. EST
• Venue: Pierre Mauroy Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• France record: 1-0
• Japan record: 0-1

France vs. Japan Key Players to Watch

France

Victor Wembanyama: Wemby put on a show in his 2024 Olympic debut, scoring 19 points while grabbing nine rebounds, picking up four steals and recording three blocks in a 12-point win over Brazil. The San Antonio Spurs star has a points prop of 21.5 in this game, but the best value may be on his rebounds (9.5) against a weaker Japan team. 

Japan

Rui Hachimura: If Japan is going to pull off a wild upset, Los Angeles Lakers forward Rui Hachimura has to be great. He was not against Germany, shooting just 4-for-19 from the field and 2-for-9 from 3 despite scoring 20 points. He’s set at 20.5 points in the prop market for this matchup. 

France vs. Japan Prediction and Pick

France’s calling card this summer is going to be its defense, especially with Wemby and Rudy Gobert protecting the rim. 

France allowed just 66 points to Brazil in its first pool play matchup, easily hitting the under on the total. I expect more of the same against a Japan team that lacks the offensive talent to keep up with some of the loaded rosters we have in the 2024 Olympics. 

Japan did score 77 points against Germany, but the Germans love to push the pace with Dennis Schroder leading the charge. France doesn’t have nearly as strong of guard play – or offense altogether – so it would much rather play a grind it out game and allow Wemby to do crazy things on the offensive end. 

Japan shot under 37 percent from the field against Germany, and that won’t be enough to beat this France team – or likely score enough to push this total over. 

I don’t love the idea of laying 17.5 points with France given some of its offensive questions, especially after it needed a huge third quarter to pull away from Brazil in the opener. 

The UNDER is the best bet with France’s dominant defense and rim protection likely setting the tone from the opening tip. 

Pick: UNDER 163.5 (-110)

---

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.