France vs. Team USA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Olympic Basketball Gold Medal Game

Who will win the gold medal in men's basketball on Saturday?

United States shooting guard Stephen Curry. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

What a matchup we have in store for the gold medal in men’s 5x5 basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics. 

The host country France reached the gold medal game with upset wins over Canada and Germany in the knockout round, riding two big games from forward Guerschon Yabusele to get there. 

Meanwhile, Team USA survived a double-digit second half deficit against Serbia, turning things around in the fourth quarter behind stellar play from Steph Curry (36 points), LeBron James (16 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) and Joel Embiid (19 points). 

Curry carried the offense all night, while James, Embiid and Kevin Durant all came up with timely buckets in the fourth quarter to outscore Serbia 32-15 in the period. Now, the focus turns to winning yet another gold medal. 

Serbia gave Team USA by far the best game it’s had in the Olympics, but the Americans showed they can overcome a poor start ahead of the gold medal match on Saturday. 

Can France, who has benched veterans Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier to go smaller, shock the Americans and win over the home crowd in Paris?

Here’s a look at the opening odds, players to watch and my best bet for the gold medal match in men’s basketball. 

France vs. Team USA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Spread

• France +14.5 (-110)
• Team USA -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• France: +760
• Team USA: -1400

Total

• 180.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

France vs. Team USA How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Aug. 10
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Bercy Arena
• How to Watch (TV): USA, NBCOlympics.com, Peacock
• France record: 4-1
• Team USA record: 5-0

France vs. Team USA Key Players to Watch

France

Guerschon Yabusele: After dropping 22 points in an upset win over Canada, Yabusele kept his run going against Germany in the semifinals, scoring 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the field. With Victor Wembanyama shooting just 6-for-27 from the field over his last two games, Yabusele’s offense has proven to be massive for this France squad. 

Team USA

Stephen Curry: Over the first four games of the Olympics, Curry struggled a little shooting the ball, but the floodgates opened against Serbia. Curry had 36 points on 12-of-19 shooting from the field (9-for-14 from 3-point range), keeping the Team USA offense afloat in the first half when it struggled scoring the ball. Another big Curry game could be needed against France’s defense that has allowed just 73 and 69 points in two knockout round games. 

France vs. Team USA Prediction and Pick

After surviving a scare in the semifinals, I expect Team USA to come out focused in the gold medal game against France.

While Wembanyama is certainly an impactful player, France doesn’t have anyone on the level of Serbia’s Nikola Jokic – a three-time league MVP. 

Wemby has struggled shooting the ball in the knockout round, shooting just 6-for-27 from the field. The French are relying heavily on Yabusele and Isaïa Cordinier, as they combined for 42 points against Canada and 33 against Germany. 

Will they have the same success against Team USA?

I’m certainly skeptical given the depth on the wings and down low for the Americans. With Gobert dealing with a finger injury and getting benched, the French haven’t used their massive defensive frontcourt on this run to the final. 

I think that benefits Team USA, as it should only need to play one big man at a time to contain this French team. While the home crowd will be behind Wemby and company, Team USA is still the more talented squad and has won four of its five games by 13 or more points in these Olympics. 

I’ll lay the points with the Americans after they faced arguably their toughest test of the summer in the semifinals. 

Pick: Team USA -13.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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