Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz, Prediction, Odds and Pick for US Open Semifinals

Reed Wallach | Sep 4, 2024

Sep 3, 2024; Flushing, NY, USA; Taylor Fritz (USA) serves against Alexander Zverev (GER)(not pictured) on day nine of the U.S. Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

A spot in the US Open Finals is on the line between two Americans.

Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will look to be the first American to win a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick won the US Open in 2003. One US-born player will advance to the finals on Sunday, but who will it be?

Fritz has owned the head-to-head against Tiafoe, but this is the furthest each player has made it in a Grand Slam, will nerves play a role?

Here's how to bet the first men's semifinals matchup between two Americans.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread:

• Tiafoe: -4.5 (-110)
• Fritz: +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Tiafoe: +210
• Fritz: -260

Total: 39.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz Prediction and Pick

Fritz has owned the head-to-head against his fellow American, winning six of seven matchups against Tiafoe. 

Tiafoe won the first meeting back in 2016, but since then, Fritz and his big first serve has dictated this series, including a 2022 straight-sets win at the Australian Open, the only time these two have met in a Grand Slam. 

Both players are in fantastic form, taking full advantage of a draw that got busted open due to Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz bowing out far earlier than expected. 

Fritz has faced the tougher draw and handled it with more ease, taking down highly ranked Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev in four sets each. Meanwhile, Tiafoe was able to avoid a far too taxing quarterfinal against Grigor Dimitrov after the Bulgarian retired in the fourth set. 

Both players are in the grand slam semifinals for the first time and nerves will be at an all-time high, but I’m going to trust Fritz’s first serve to pace the way and be the consistent force in this matchup. 

The No. 12 player in the world simply isn’t giving opponents openings to break serve. He has faced only 17 break points this tournament, which will make it difficult for Tiafoe to get ahead in this match. 

Meanwhile, Tiafoe has faced 33 break points and has played in far more grueling matches that have featured more high-leverage points. While that may mean he’s battle-tested, it also shows the shaky nature of his play at the moment. 

I’ll back the in form Fritz to advance to the US Open Finals. 

PICK: Fritz -4.5 Games (-110)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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