Fresno State vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Reed Wallach | Aug 27, 2024

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji (10) against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan's title defense begins at home against Fresno State on Saturday night.

There are plenty of new faces on the roster and in key positions for the Michigan Wolverines, how will it all look in its opener? I'm banking on Michigan keeping a very vanilla game script in hopes of keeping its eye on the upcoming schedule that features a showdown against Texas on Saturday.

Here's how to bet Michigan's opener.

Fresno State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Fresno State: +21.5 (-114)
• Michigan: -21.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Fresno State: +1000
• Michigan: -2100

Total: 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Fresno State vs. Michigan How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 31st
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Michigan Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): NBC
• Fresno State Record: 0-0
• Michigan Record: 0-0

Fresno State vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

Fresno State

Mikey Keene: Keene had an injury setback at the end of the season that derailed the Bulldogs' chances for competing for a Mountain West title, but he will be back with a full arsenal of weapons in 2024 to improve in his second season in California. Malik Sherrod is back after nearly 1,000 rushing as well as Jalen Moss, who had 80 targets last season. Keene operated a national average passing game that averaged just short of 30 points per game. 

Michigan

Alex Orji: Taking over for first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, Orji will be tasked with keeping this Michigan offense on track. There will be a host of new weapons at his disposal, but the run first Orji must showcase he can operate as a passer. We saw glimpses of him in the last two seasons as a change-of-pace QB in certain packages, but he has attempted only one pass in two seasons.

Fresno State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan may have plenty of turnovers, but I expect new head coach Sherrone Moore to implement a similar style to the one that yielded a National Championship in 2023, a run-first offense that leans on an elite defense. 

With Texas on deck, the Wolverines have little incentive to deviate from its preferred game script in 2024 and keep questions of Orji’s effectiveness as a passer in doubt to keep the Longhorns guessing. 

Michigan played at the third slowest pace last season in terms of seconds per play, the team will likely lean on its elite defense that still has future pros all over including Mason Graham and Will Johnson and implement a run-focused scheme with Orji, Donovan Edwards, and Kalel Mullings moving the sticks. 

I expect very few snaps in this one and limited possessions, which is going to keep this game under the total as Michigan gears up for Texas next week at home. 

PICK: UNDER 45.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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