Fresno State vs. Nevada Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 8

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Nevada’s Brendon Lewis celebrates a score while taking on Oregon St. at Mackay Stadium in Reno on Oct. 12, 2024. / JASON BEAN/RGJ / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Nevada continues to outperform expectations in the first season under Jeff Choate, off an upset win against Oregon State, and will look to pull another home win as an underdog against Fresno State. 

The Bulldogs are off a heart breaking loss to Washington State at home, and now turn around on a short week with injuries continuing to ravage the roster. Can Fresno State bounce back and get a win against an improved Mountain West foe? 

Here’s our full betting preview. 

Fresno State vs. Nevada Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Fresno State: -2.5 (-115)
• Nevada: +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Fresno State: -134
• Nevada: +112

Total: 54.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Fresno State vs. Nevada How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 17
• Game Time: 10:30 PM EST
• Venue: Mackay Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
• Fresno State Record: 3-3
• Nevada Record: 3-4

Fresno State vs. Nevada Key Players to Watch

Fresno State

Mikey Keene: Keene has regressed quite a bit this season. He is pushing the ball down the field more, his average depth of target is up more than a yard (8.9 vs. 7.5), but so are his turnover worthy plays. He had nine TWP last season, per Pro Football Focus, but that number is up to 11 through six games. This is a much improved Wolf Pack defense that is in the top half of the country in havoc rating, so Kenne must be careful. 

Nevada

Brandon Lewis: Lewis is enjoying the best season of his collegiate career, completing two-thirds of his passes with 1,132 yards as well as rushing for 513 yards in this unique offense that is run by former Kansas offensive analyst Matt Lubick. The Wolf Pack offense is 32nd in EPA/Play behind a potent run game that Lewis plays a big role in. 

Fresno State vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick

Fresno State is not a team worth trusting as a favorite, and the market agrees as early action has moved the Wolf Pack from a 3.5-point underdog to +2.5. 

The Bulldogs haven’t had stud running back Malik Sherrod available in full for the last few weeks, and now the team is down some depth pieces like wide receiver Josiah Freeman and defensive lineman Mordecai Hines. 

Nevada should be able to implement its run-first scheme in this one as the Bulldogs defense has struggled against the run all season, ranking outside the top 80 in Pro Football Focus’ rush defense and yards per carry allowed. 

With a churning clock, Nevada is bottom three in seconds per play this season, and a much improved secondary that can give Keene fits, the team is 35th in coverage grading per PFF, I like the running dog in the Wolf Pack on Friday night to not just cover the small spread, but win outright. 

PICK: Nevada +2.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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