Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for New Orleans Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 16, 2024

Sep 7, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Sam Houston State Bearkats quarterback Hunter Watson (10) passes the ball during the first quarter against the UCF Knights at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Sam Houston enjoyed a strong season in its second year in the FBS ranks, but with success comes movement. 

The Bearkats head coach K.C. Keeler took the vacant Temple job and won’t be coaching the team in the New Orleans Bowl, the team’s first bowl game after moving up from the FCS last season. The team will face Georgia Southern in this bowl game, who narrowly missed out on the Sun Belt Championship and will look to cap its strong season with a win. 

Who has the edge with questions on the Sam Houston side? Here’s our full betting preview:

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Georgia Southern: +6.5 (-104)
• Sam Houston: -6.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Georgia Southern: +188
• Sam Houston: -230

Total: 53.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, December 19
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Caesars Superdome
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Georgia Southern Record: 8-4
• Sam Houston Record: 9-3

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston Key Players to Watch

Georgia Southern

JC French: The sophomore quarterback was the engineer of the Eagles potent offense, passing for more than 2,600 yards with 16 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. This is a pass-first offense, ranking top 35 in the country in pass play percentage, and this game will likely be won or lost on French’s arm. 

Sam Houston

Hunter Watson: The JUCO transfer provided a big play element to this Sam Houston offense, totaling 18 touchdowns with more than 2,200 yards. Despite getting banged up in Conference USA play, Watson returned to the field to lead the team to wins in three of the final four games of the season. 

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston Prediction and Pick

Georgia Southern was a team that I pegged to fade in bowl season due to its misleading record, but the state of Sam Houston makes it worth diving into a bit more. 

The Eagles rank 122nd in net yards per play and 96th in net EPA/Play, a sign that the team was quite fortunate to amass an 8-4 record this season.

Meanwhile, Sam Houston had a strong CUSA season in which it won nine games based around Watson’s ability to use both his arms and legs and a study secondary that ranked top 20 in EPA/Pass. However, it's worth noting that they played in a conference that has suspect quality. 

Then, there’s the reported opt outs for Sam Houston, who are set to be down a pair of starters in the secondary, Caleb Weaver and Isaiah Cash, as well as lead running back Jay Ducker and a handful of players on the defensive line. 

Can Georgia Southern take advantage? 

Head coach Clay Helton hasn’t won a bowl game with the Eagles, 0-2 thus far, but this matchup does set up well for the Eagles to take advantage of a short handed Bearkats secondary. 

With that in mind, I’m going to side with the over. 

The Eagles defense has been poor at defending the run all season, 120th in EPA/Rush, which can give Watson and the Bearkats plenty of ability to stay within this game. However, Georgia Southern has a path to success as well in the passing game. 

On a fast track in the Superdome, I believe we see enough scoring chances to clear this low total. 

PICK: OVER 46.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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