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Giants vs. Falcons Best NFL Prop Bets for NFL Week 16 (Bank on Drake London)

Reed Wallach

Dec 16, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Dec 16, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

The Michael Penix Jr. era will begin for the Falcons on Sunday in East Rutherford, New Jersey against the New York Giants after Atlanta benched Kirk Cousins for the rookie Penix.

The Giants are among the worst teams in football, and the team continues to lose bodies on the defensive side of the ball that should make for a nice first start for the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Can we bank on Penix Jr. to get this talented Falcons offense back on track? 

Here’s our three favorite player props for Falcons vs. Giants in Week 16. 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Falcons vs. Giants 

  • Michael Penix Jr. OVER 220.5 Passing Yards
  • Drake London OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards
  • Drew Lock UNDER 16.5 Rushing Yards

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michael Penix Jr. OVER 220.5 Passing Yards

The Giants defense is among the worst in the NFL this season, and it’s down several key contributors on that side of the ball due to injuries. To make matters worse, star pass rush Brian Burns may not play either. 

That should set up nicely for the rookie to have a strong showing in his first start against a Giants defense that is 29th in EPA/Dropback and trending in the wrong direction, last in the NFL since Week 11. 

This is a fairly low number for the big arm of Penix to achieve with his full complement of skill position weapons. Even in a conservative game script, I expect the rookie to thrive and put together a strong start. 

Drake London OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards

The biggest benefactor of the move from Kirk Cousins to Penix is likely London, the Falcons No. 1 wide receiver. 

London has emerged as one of the best receivers in football, but with Cousins’ play diminishing over the back half of the regular season, the strong arm of Penix will likely raise the overall play of the offense. 

The USC product has had little issue clearing this receiving yard total with Cousins in, going over this mark in eight of 14 games and has at least 50 yards in the last five games, giving him a proven floor. 

I’m banking on a boost in play for the Falcons offense, and London is my target. 

Drew Lock UNDER 16.5 Rushing Yards

Lock has been battling an ankle injury, so while he has ran for more than 50 yards in his prior two starts, I’m expecting a more conservative game from the Giants quarterback and possibly even a short stint if his ankle doesn’t hold up. 

The Giants will likely lean on its ground game and the intermediate passing game to stay close to the Falcons as home underdogs which won’t require a ton of run plays for the normally stationary Lock. 

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Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.

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