Giants vs. Falcons Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 16 (Atlanta Should Roll in Penix’s First Start)

Should bettors wager on the Falcons in Michael Penix's first start?

Should bettors wager on the Falcons in Michael Penix's first start? / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons are entering a new era in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season, as they’ll start rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. against the New York Giants.

Penix’s start comes after Kirk Cousins led Atlanta to just a 1-4 record over the last five weeks, throwing one touchdown and nine interceptions in the process. Atlanta did win last week over the Las Vegas Raiders, but it is just 7-7 overall and in danger of missing the playoffs after blowing the NFC South lead to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Meanwhile, the Giants are just 2-12 on the season and in a complete tank of a season after releasing Daniel Jones. Drew Lock will start for the Giants in this matchup after sitting out Week 15 with an injury. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s my prediction for the final score of this matchup between two NFC foes in Week 16. 

Giants vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Giants +8.5 (-108)
• Falcons -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Giants: +330
• Falcons: -425

Total

• 42 (Over -112/Under -108)

The UNDER has hit in nine games for both of these teams this season (9-5). The Falcons come into this game at just 2-4 against the spread as home favorites while the Giants are just 4-10 against the spread overall. 

Giants vs. Falcons Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he thinks the Falcons are the bet to make in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week: 

Even in their win against the Raiders on Monday night, the Falcons looked bad, but the Giants are a completely different kind of bad. Whether it's Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, or Tim Boyle at quarterback for the Giants, their team is a disaster. They're last in the NFL in both EPA per play and success rate since Week 11 and while the Falcons have issues of their own, they should be able to steamroll this team in a must-win situation.

I agree with MacMillan that the Falcons should roll in this matchup, but I also think this will be a low-scoring affair. 

Atlanta has scored just 72 points over its last five games, losing four of them and scoring more than 20 points just once over that stretch. With Penix making his first start, I’m not sold on this offense having a major bounceback.

As for the Giants, they've scored seven, 20, 11, and 14 points in the four games they have played since releasing Daniel Jones, losing three of them by a touchdown or more. 

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Giants 10

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