Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for ALCS Game 1 (How to Bet Total)

Breaking down the odds, probable pitchers, key players to watch and more for Game 1 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees.

New York Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodon. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The ALCS gets under way on Monday night with the New York Yankees hosting the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1. 

New York reached the ALCS by taking down the Kansas City Royals in four games, riding a seven-inning gem from ace Gerrit Cole in Game 4. 

Cleveland didn’t have as easy of a path, falling down 2-1 in the ALDS to the Detroit Tigers before rallying to win both Game 4 and Game 5 to reach the ALCS. 

These two franchises have matched up six times in the playoffs with the Yankees winning four of the six series, but New York is only 15-12 all time against Cleveland in the postseason. 

So, we could be in for a close matchup. 

New York has lefty Carlos Rodon on the mound in Game 1 since Cole won’t be available on regular rest until Game 2. He’ll face Cleveland’s Alex Cobb, who only made three starts in the regular season but pitched Game 3 of the ALDS against Detroit.

Both Rodon and Cobb failed to lead their teams to wins in the ALDS, but one of them will change that narrative on Monday night.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for this Game 1 matchup. 

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-155)
• Yankees -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline

• Guardians: +140
• Yankees: -166

Total

• 7.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Guardians vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Cleveland: Alex Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA)
• New York: Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA)

Guardians vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Oct. 14
• Time: 7:38 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Series: Tied 0-0

Guardians vs. Yankees Key Players to Watch

Cleveland Guardians

Jose Ramirez: Ramirez homered in Game 4 for the Guardians and picked up another hit in Game 5 to lead them to a series win. The switch hitter crushed left-handed pitching in 2024 (.348/.386/.695) and he’s 10-for-43 against Rodon in his career. The Yankees need to make sure they keep Ramirez in check in this series. 

New York Yankees

Giancarlo Stanton: The Yankees designated hitter came up huge in the ALDS, driving in two runs in Game 3 and one run in Game 4. Overall, Stanton was 6-for-16 in the series with one homer and four runs batted in. In his playoff career, he’s hitting .277 with 12 homers and 28 runs batted in across just 31 games. 

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams had some interesting trends when it came to the total in the ALDS.

New York opened with a six-run showing in Game 1 against Kansas City, combining for 11 total runs in that contest. However, it fell well short of 7.5 runs in the next three games of the series.

A big reason why?

The Yankees bullpen has yet to allow a run this postseason, the only team in the league that can say that through the division series. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s bullpen ended up blowing Game 2 of the ALDS late, and it has a 3.16 ERA this postseason. 

After going UNDER 7.5 runs in Games 1, 2 and 3 against Detroit, the Guardians went OVER this total in the final two contests of the series. 

Despite that, I think the UNDER is the play on Monday night. 

New York’s offense was strong during the regular season, but the Yankees only have 28 hits (seventh in MLB) this postseason. They left a ton of runners on base in the Kansas City series, and Cleveland did have the No. 1 bullpen in MLB in the regular season.

On the Guardians side, they were shut out in multiple games in the ALDS, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull Cobb at the first sign of trouble after he lasted just 3.0 innings in Game 1. 

Take the UNDER between these two strong pitching staffs in Game 1.  

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-118)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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