Hawks vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Cup Semifinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Atlanta Hawks-Milwaukee Bucks matchup in the NBA Cup on Saturday.

The Bucks are favored over the Hawks in the NBA Cup semis. / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

For the second straight season, the Milwaukee Bucks are in the mix to win the NBA Cup, and they’ll play the Atlanta Hawks in the semifinals on Saturday afternoon in Las Vegas.

Atlanta pulled off a massive upset against the New York Knicks – originally the favorite to win the NBA Cup entering the semifinals – on Wednesday night behind another big game from Trae Young at Madison Square Garden.

Milwaukee was in a battle on Tuesday night against a shorthanded Orlando Magic team, but some clutch buckets from Damian Lillard helped Milwaukee escape with a win. After a slow start to the season, the Bucks are now two games over .500 and on the rise with former All-Star Khris Middleton back in the lineup.

So, in a rematch of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, who has the edge? 

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my best bet for Saturday’s semifinal. 

Hawks vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Hawks +3.5 (-108)
• Bucks -3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Hawks: +145
• Bucks: -175

Total

• 229 (Over -110/Under -110)

Hawks vs. Bucks How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 14
• Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Hawks record: 14-12
• Bucks record: 13-11

Hawks vs. Bucks Injury Reports

Hawks Injury Report

• Dominick Barlow – questionable
• Bogdan Bogdanovic – probable
• Trae Young – probable
• De’Andre Hunter – probable
• Mouhamed Gueye – questionable
• Jalen Johnson – questionable
• Seth Lundy – questionable
• Keaton Wallace – questionable
• Cody Zeller – out

Bucks Injury Report

• Giannis Antetokounmpo – probable
• Khris Middleton – probable
• MarJon Beauchamp – probable

Hawks vs. Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets

Atlanta Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Trae Young OVER 20.5 Points (-110)

It’s been a tough season for Young scoring the basketball, as he’s averaging just 21.0 points per game while shooting 38.4 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from beyond the arc.

However, this is about as good of a matchup as you’ll find for Young in the NBA. Milwaukee has been awful defending the guard position, allowing an NBA-high 28.42 points per game to opposing point guards this season.

Young did have a huge game on Wednesday, scoring 22 points against New York – but he didn’t shoot the ball well (8-for-22 from the field). Hopefully, he’ll see his field goal percentage rise on Saturday against a weaker defense.

Not only that, but Jalen Suggs dropped 32 on the Bucks on Tuesday in the NBA Cup quarterfinals. Don’t be shocked if Young has a big scoring game on Saturday. 

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 32.5 Points (-120)

Earlier this season, Giannis Antetokounmpo put up a smooth 31 points against Atlanta, taking 26 shots from the free-throw line (he hit 15) and going 8-for-14 from the field.

The Bucks lost that game, but Giannis has now scored 30 or more points in eight of his last nine games, giving him a tremendous floor when it comes to his scoring prop. 

The two-time MVP is averaging 32.7 points per game while shooting 61.2 percent from the field. It’s hard to find a much better matchup, as Atlanta loves to push the pace (third in the NBA) and ranks just 18th in defensive rating.

Given Giannis’ scoring dominance this season, he’s worth a shot in a crucial NBA Cup game. 

Hawks vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick

The Hawks have a little bit of the same vibe as the Indiana Pacers last season when it comes to the NBA Cup.

Indiana came out of nowhere as a young team, advancing to the NBA Cup Final before losing the Los Angeles Lakers. Could we see Atlanta follow the same path?

The Hawks have been great against some of the best teams in the NBA this season, beating Milwaukee once, New York twice, Boston once and Cleveland twice. 

Not only that, but the Hawks’ win over the Bucks earlier this season was by a convincing margin – 15 points. 

Yes, Khris Middleton is back for the Bucks, but he’s playing less than 24 minutes per game, limiting just how much he can impact this offense.

The Hawks are an impressive 8-4 against the spread as dogs while the Bucks are just 6-11-1 ATS as favorites. 

I’m taking the points on Saturday.  

Pick: Hawks +3.5 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.