Hawks vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 3

The Memphis Grizzlies are favored at home on Monday night.

The Memphis Grizzlies are favored at home on Monday night. / Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

The Memphis Grizzlies have fallen out of the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with back-to-back losses, but they’ll look to bounce back on Monday against Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks.

The Hawks aren’t nearly as good as Memphis, as they’re fighting for a play-in tournament spot in the East, but these squads do have one thing in common.

They both play at a blistering pace (top five in the league) this season. That could make for some offensive fireworks on Monday, but the Grizzlies – who are an elite home team this season – find themselves as favorites at FedExForum.

Can Young and the Hawks inch closer to .500 with an upset win? Or, will Ja Morant and company get back on track?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Monday’s contest. 

Hawks vs. Grizzlies Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Hawks +9 (-112)
• Grizzlies -9 (-108)

Moneyline

• Hawks: +285
• Grizzlies: -360

Total

• 253.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Hawks vs. Grizzlies How to Watch

• Date: Monday, March 3
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: FedExForum
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local), NBA League Pass
• Hawks record: 27-33
• Grizzlies record: 38-22

Hawks vs. Grizzlies Injury Reports

Hawks Injury Report

• Kobe Bufkin – out
• Jalen Johnson – out
• Vit Krejci – out
• Larry Nance Jr. – out
• Georges Niang – out
• Daeqwon Plowden – out
• Trae Young – probable

Grizzlies Injury Report

• Yuki Kawamure – out
• Zyon Pullin – out
• Ja Morant – questionable

Hawks vs. Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bets 

Atlanta Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Trae Young OVER 10.5 Assists (-140)

Trae Young missed the first meeting between these teams this season, but he’s averaging 11.4 assists per game, yet is set below his season average in this matchup. 

This game has a sky-high total and two fast-paced teams, which should set up well for Young in this market. Plus, Memphis is just 21st in the NBA in opponent assists per game. Young has at least 11 dimes in seven of his 12 matchups since Feb. 1, averaging 11.6 assists per game over that stretch. 

He’s a value play on Monday night. 

Memphis Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet

• Ja Morant OVER 23.5 Points (-120)

Ja Morant is questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s going to have a big scoring game. The Hawks are allowing over 24.6 points per game to opposing point guards this season, and Morant has been taking a ton of shots for the Grizzlies as of late.

In his last nine games (since Feb. 1), Morant is averaging 22.6 points on 18.8 shots per game. He’s shooting just 40.2 percent from the field, but the usage is there. He’s also picked up 24 or more points in five of those nine games.

Don’t be shocked if Ja pushes 20 shots again on Monday. 

Hawks vs. Grizzlies Prediction and Pick

I can’t get behind the OVER at this massive number. 

Earlier this season, the Hawks and Grizzlies combined for 240 points, and Memphis has only gone over 253.5 points in two games since Jan. 25 (and one of those went to overtime). 

Meanwhile, the Hawks are a little depleted on the offensive end with Jalen Johnson out for the season and De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic no longer with the franchise after being traded. The Hawks may play at a fast pace, but they are just 22nd in offensive rating and 20th in effective field goal percentage this season. 

Atlanta has actually been more effective at going over this number than the Grizzlies, but with Ja Morant questionable, I’m not sold on this matchup trickling all the way up into the 250s. 

Despite these being two of the best OVER teams in the NBA, Atlanta has been much less effective at hitting the OVER (17-14) on the road. Plus, Memphis is actually 15-15 to the OVER when at home the 2024-25 season. 

I’ll go UNDER in Memphis on Monday night. 

Pick: UNDER 253.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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