Hawks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for New Year’s Day (Jan. 1)

Can the Hawks improve on an impressive ATS record as road underdogs?

Can the Hawks improve on an impressive ATS record as road underdogs? / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets have won seven of their last 10 games and are looking more like a true playoff contender heading into a New Year’s Day matchup with Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. 

Despite trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, the Hawks are firmly in the mix for a playoff spot in the East at this point in the season, winning four straight games to get to 18-15 on the season. 

Atlanta has a ton of switchable wings, including All-Defensive team candidate Dyson Daniels and No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher. This supporting cast around Trae Young may be enough for Atlanta to avoid the play-in tournament with the East featuring several teams having a down year.

Atlanta will have its work cut out on Wednesday, as the Nuggets are home favorites – where they are 9-5 straight up this season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this interconference matchup. 

Hawks vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Hawks +5.5 (-115)
• Nuggets -5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Hawks: +190
• Nuggets: -230

Total

• 246 (Over -112/Under -108)

Hawks vs. Nuggets How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Altitude, Bally Sports
• Hawks record: 18-15
• Nuggets record: 18-13

Hawks vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Hawks Injury Report

• Bogdan Bogdanovic – doubtful
• Kobe Bufkin – out
• Dyson Daniels – probable
• Mouhamed Gueye – out
• Larry Nance Jr. – out
• Daeqwon Plowden – out
• Cody Zeller – out
• Trae Young – probable
• Keaton Wallace – out

Nuggets Injury Report

• Trey Alexander – out
• Aaron Gordon – out
• Vlatko Cancar – out
• DaRon Holmes II – out
• PJ Hall – out

Hawks vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Atlanta Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jalen Johnson OVER 19.5 Points (-115)

Johnson is averaging 19.9 points on 15.5 shots per game this season, clearing 19.5 points in 18 of his 31 games.

He did miss the first meeting with Denver this season (Atlanta lost that game by 30), but the Nuggets aren’t an elite defensive team, ranking 19th in the NBA in defensive rating in the 2024-25 campaign. 

Johnson has taken at least 12 shots in 19 of his last 20 games, giving him a pretty solid floor when it comes to this prop. 

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-125)

Earlier this season, Jokic grabbed 14 rebounds in a win over Atlanta, and this matchup actually bodes pretty well for him – even though Atlanta is sixth in the NBA in rebounding percentage.

Since the Hawks play at such a fast pace (No. 2 in the NBA), they are actually 16th in the league in opponent rebounds per game.

Jokic is already averaging 12.9 rebounds per game this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him push his season average on Wednesday night. 

Hawks vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

I’m not reading too much into the Hawks’ loss to Denver earlier this season since so many key players missed that game, and Denver is down its top defender in Aaron Gordon on Wednesday night. 

The Nuggets come into this game 5-6-1 against the spread as a home favorite, but Atlanta is one of the best road teams to bet on in the NBA this season, going 7-3 ATS as a road underdog.

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the league in pace, and Atlanta actually outranks Denver in defensive rating (the Nuggets have the edge in offensive rating) so far this season. 

Laying the points with Denver is tough since the squad is so bad when Jokic heads to the bench, and Denver’s margin for error is much slimmer without Gordon. 

I’ll take the points on Wednesday. 

Pick: Hawks +5.5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.