Heat vs. Kings Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Jan. 6

The Kings are favored as a home favorite on Monday.

The Kings are favored as a home favorite on Monday. / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

The Sacramento Kings have responded well to the firing of head coach Mike Brown, as they’ve won four games in a row, including a 30-point win over the Golden State Warriors on Sunday night.

Now, the Kings host the Miami Heat, who won’t have superstar Jimmy Butler due to his suspension by the team amidst massive trade rumors. Butler essentially requested a trade in a press conference after Miami’s loss to the Indiana Pacers earlier this month. 

Miami has slipped to the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference by losing back-to-back games, while the Kings are making a push to get into the play-in tournament mix, sitting in the No. 11 spot in the Western Conference.

The Kings are just 2-5 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, but can they knock off a shorthanded Miami team?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Monday night. 

Heat vs. Kings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Heat +3.5 (-112)
• Kings -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Heat: +140
• Kings: -166

Total

• 223.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Kings How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Jan. 6
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Golden 1 Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Heat record: 17-16
• Kings record: 17-19

Heat vs. Kings Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

• Jimmy Butler – out
• Haywood Highsmith – questionable
• Nikola Jovic – available
• Dru Smith – out
• Josh Richardson – doubtful
• Isaiah Stevens – out

Kings Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Heat vs. Kings Best NBA Prop Bets

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Bam Adebayo UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (-125)

Heat big man Bam Adebayo is averaging 9.8 rebounds per game this season, but he has a tough matchup against Domantas Sabonis and a Kings squad that ranks eighth in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season.

Bam only has three games in his last 10 which he’s cleared 9.5 boards, and he was held to just eight rebounds the first time these teams met in the 2024-25 campaign. 

Sacramento Kings Best NBA Prop Bet

• Keegan Murray OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120)

It’s been a down-shooting year for Keegan Murray, who is hitting just 29.0 percent of his shots from beyond the arc for the Kings. 

Murray is coming off a game where he nailed three shots from deep against the Golden State Warriors, and he’s got a decent matchup against a Heat team that is 19th in opponent 3-point percentage and 15th in opponent-made 3s per game.

I’ll back Murray to build on yesterday’s shooting performance on Monday.  

Heat vs. Kings Prediction and Pick

The Kings have yet to release their injury report for this game – which is the second night of a back-to-back – so I’m going to play things a little safe here and just take them to win.

Miami is coming off a brutal loss at home to the Utah Jazz, and the franchise as a whole is out of whack with Jimmy Butler’s suspension. Miami is also shaky on the road this season, going 5-4 ATS as a road underdog and 7-9 straight up.

Now, the Kings are not good when favored at home (6-10-2 against the spread), so I don’t want to lay the points here. But, if healthy, they are the more talented team.

Sacramento has won four in a row to get back in the mix for the play-in tournament in the Western Conference, and I expect it to continue to roll at home tonight. 

Pick: Kings Moneyline (-175)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.