Heat vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 17

The Knicks are favored at home on Monday night.

The Knicks are favored at home on Monday night. / Soobum Im-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat have lost seven games in a row heading into Monday night’s matchup with the New York Knicks, who are down Jalen Brunson once again due to an ankle injury.

In fact, it was reported over the weekend that Brunson is likely out for the rest of the month of March, putting the Knicks in a tough spot to hang on to a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference.

Still, oddsmakers have the Knicks favored in this game, as Miami has struggled mightily since the All-Star break and is in danger of getting passed by the Chicago Bulls in the play-in tournament standings. Miami currently holds the No. 9 seed, but it is just one game ahead of a suddenly surging Chicago team.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Monday night’s matchup. 

Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Heat +7.5 (-110)
• Knicks -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Heat: +245
• Knicks: -305

Total

• 211 (Over -108/Under -112)

Heat vs. Knicks How to Watch

• Date: Monday, March 17
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Madison Square Garden
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Heat record: 29-38
• Knicks record: 42-24

Heat vs. Knicks Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

• Alec Burks – out
• Josh Christopher – out
• Haywood Highsmith – available
• Keshad Johnson – out
• Nikola Jovic – out
• Duncan Robinson – available
• Isaiah Stevens – out
• Dru Smith – out
• Andrew Wiggins – questionable

Knicks Injury Report

• Jalen Brunson – out
• Ariel Hukporti – out
• Kevin McCullar Jr. – out
• Pacome Dadiet – questionable

Heat vs. Knicks Best NBA Prop Bets

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Bam Adebayo OVER 18.5 Points (-115)

Bam Adebayo gave the Knicks a world of trouble the last time these teams faced off, scoring 30 points on 12-of-16 shooting in an overtime loss. 

Now, the Heat center is set at 18.5 points – one point above his season average of 17.5 – for Monday’s contest. I like Bam to go OVER this number, something he’s done in six of his last 10 games, especially since he bounced back from a pair of single-digit scoring games to put up 18 in a blowout loss to Memphis on Saturday.

The Knicks’ defense is in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, so Bam should have an easier time scoring tonight. 

New York Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Mikal Bridges OVER 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Mikal Bridges is a solid prop target on Monday night: 

With Jalen Brunson out of the lineup for the New York Knicks, wing Mikal Bridges has operated as one of the primary initiators of the team's offense. 

Despite a down scoring year for the price that the Knicks traded for him (New York gave up five first-round picks for Bridges), Bridges has cleared this prop in all four games since Brunson went down, registering 31, 26, 41 and 28 points, rebounds and assists. 

He hasn’t seen his shots increase at a crazy rate, but the Knicks wing always plays a ton of minutes and is hitting over 61 percent of his shots (on just over 14 attempts per game) since Brunson sprained his ankle.

I think he’ll have a lead role in the New York offense once again on Monday night. 

Heat vs. Knicks Prediction and Pick

There are a lot of reasons not to trust the Heat this season, as they’ve blown a ton of double-digit leads, but one area sticks out since the All-Star break.

In 14 games since the break (Miami is 4-10 in that stretch), the Heat have the No. 29 net rating in the fourth quarter at -22.8. That’s a shocking number, and it really makes it tough to trust the Heat to cover the spread, as they’ve consistently been outscored late in games.

Also, Miami’s offensive rating is tied with the Utah Jazz for the worst mark in the NBA over its last 10 games.

That won’t cut it against a New York team that is in the top five in the league in offensive rating and still has capable scorers with Brunson out. The Heat are also just 8-11-1 against the spread as road dogs in the 2024-25 season.

I lean with the Knicks to win and cover in Monday’s matchup. 

Pick: Knicks -7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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