Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, Jan. 7

The Warriors are massive home favorites on Tuesday, but will they cover?

Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic (5) dribbles the basketball as Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins (22) defends. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat have a tough turnaround on Tuesday night against the Golden State Warriors after they blew a lead and lost in double overtime to the Sacramento Kings on Monday.

Miami blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead, a lead in overtime and eventually lost by five in double OT to fall back to .500 on the season.

With Jimmy Butler suspended and seeking a trade, the Heat are already shorthanded heading into Tuesday’s matchup with Steph Curry and company.

The Warriors are heavily favored in this game, which is interesting considering that they’ve dropped six of their last 10 games and were blown out by that same Kings team by 30 on Sunday. 

It’s been a tough stretch for Golden State after it started 12-3. Steve Kerr’s group has won just six of its last 20 games, slipping to the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference in the process.

So, should bettors stay away from laying the points with Golden State tonight?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for this interconference matchup. 

Heat vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Heat +9.5 (-112)
• Warriors -9.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Heat: +330
• Warriors: -425

Total

• 218 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, NBC Sports Bay Area
• Heat record: 17-17
• Warriors record: 18-17

Heat vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

(Jimmy Butler is suspended and will not play)

Warriors Injury Report

• Brandin Podziemski – out
• Gary Payton II – out
• Jonathan Kuminga – out

Heat vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Bam Adebayo UNDER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)

Bam Adebayo is shooting 3s this season, attempting 2.6 per game, but he’s not hitting them at a high clip. 

The three-time All-Star has made just 27.0 percent of his shots from beyond the arc, and prior to a 1-for-5 night on Monday, he had failed to make a single 3 in nine straight games. 

The Warriors are an impressive 3-point defense this season, ranking 10th in the league in opponent 3-pointers made per game and seventh in opponent 3-point percentage. I’m fading Bam after he knocked down one shot from deep against the Kings. 

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Steph Curry UNDER 5.5 Rebounds (-120) 

I’m fading Steph Curry on Tuesday night when it comes to his rebounds prop, as I think it has moved up too far due to his recent output.

Curry is averaging 4.9 rebounds per game this season, but he’s cleared 5.5 boards in three of his last four contests. 

Because of that, he’s set at 5.5 boards tonight, despite the fact that he’s averaging just 3.9 rebounds per game over his last 12. In that 12-game stretch, Curry has nine games where he’s fallen short of six boards.

Take the UNDER for him tonight. 

Heat vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

So far this season, the Heat are 5-5 against the spread as road underdogs and 3-4 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back.

Despite those numbers, I can’t help but take the points with them in this matchup.

Let’s not forget, Golden State has one just six of its last 20 games!

The Warriors are just 6-8 against the spread as home favorites this season, posting an averaging scoring margin of +2.6 points in those games. 

It’s understandable that oddsmakers are bracing for a depleted – or sluggish – Miami team on Tuesday night, but the Warriors are already down multiple rotation players in Kuminga, Podziemski and Payton. 

I think this matchup ends up being closer than many think, as Golden State is just 23rd in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games.  

Pick: Heat +9.5 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.