Hornets vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 10

The Heat are 9.5-point favorites at home against the Hornets.

Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams is a solid prop target on Monday. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat blew yet another lead on Saturday night against the Chicago Bulls, and they’ve fallen to the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference heading into Monday’s matchup with the Charlotte Hornets.

Miami has lost three games in a row, and it hasn’t looked like much of a contender this season, especially now that Jimmy Butler is no longer with the franchise.

Still, the Heat are heavily favored on Monday against a Charlotte team that has the worst net rating in the NBA over its last 10 games. Charlotte is in full tank mode, as it should finish with one of the worst records in the East in the 2024-25 season. 

Here’s a complete breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Monday’s divisional battle. 

Hornets vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Hornets +9.5 (-112)
• Heat -9.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Hornets: +340
• Heat: -440

Total

• 215.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Hornets vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Monday, March 10
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local), NBA League Pass
• Hornets record: 15-48
• Heat record: 29-34

Hornets vs. Heat Injury Reports

Hornets Injury Report

• Tre Mann – out
• Brandon Miller – out
• Jusuf Nurkic – probable
• Tidjane Salaun – out
• Josh Okogie – out
• KJ Simpson – out
• Grant Williams – out

Heat Injury Report

• Alec Burks – questionable
• Josh Christopher – out
• Tyler Herro – probable
• Haywood Highsmith – questionable
• Nikola Jovic – out
• Duncan Robinson – questionable
• Dru Smith – out
• Kel’el Ware – available
• Andrew Wiggins – probable

Hornets vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Charlotte Hornets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Mark Williams to Record a Double-Double (+100)

Mark Williams has four double-doubles in his last five games, and he should be fresh heading into this matchup after sitting out Charlotte’s last two contests.

The Heat have struggled on the glass this season, ranking 23rd in opponent rebounds per game, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Williams get to 10 rebounds – even if he plays limited minutes. 

It’s also worth noting that Williams has played over 30 minutes in three of his last four appearances. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyler Herro OVER 6.5 Assists (-120)

I’m buying Tyler Herro as a passer on Monday, as the Heat guard is averaging 5.8 assists per game this season, but he’s seen that number skyrocket since Feb. 1. Over a 15-game stretch since then, Herro is averaging 6.9 assists per game.

In addition to that, the All-Star guard is averaging 11.3 potential assists per game over that stretch, nearly one more than his season average. 

He’s worth a shot in this market against a weak Charlotte defense tonight. 

Hornets vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

The Heat have been impossible to trust this season when set as major favorites, as they’ve blown 16 double-digit leads in games that have turned into losses. 

So, I can’t back them to cover the 9.5 points against Charlotte when the Hornets are trying to compete by playing LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, and Miles Bridges in this matchup.

Charlotte has also been respectable as a road underdog (14-11-1 against the spread), even though it has been blown out quite a bit over the last month. 

There is some risk here since the Hornets have the worst net rating in the NBA over their last 10 games, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them cover against this Miami team that has lost three games in a row. 

Pick: Hornets +9.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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