Houston vs. TCU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

TCU has played in several thrilling games this season and is fresh off a (semi) road win against Kansas. 

Can the Horned Frogs continue to play at a high level and get into the mix in the chaotic Big 12? The team is expected to blow out Houston, who was just blanked by Iowa State in its league opener. Can TCU show up on defense to win with the necessary margin and cover?

Here’s our full betting preview. 

Houston vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Houston: +15.5 (-105)
• TCU: -15.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Houston: +550
• TCU: -850

Total: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Houston vs. TCU How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 4
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Houston Record: 1-4
• TCU Record: 3-2

Houston vs. TCU Key Players to Watch

Houston

Donnavan Smith: It was a listless effort from Smith and the Cougars offense at home against Iowa State’s stout defense, passing for 71 yards on 12 pass attempts. He’ll hope to get on track against a middling to poor TCU defense, but one that has his number. He was sacked six times in a 23-point loss to the Horned Frogs last season. 

TCU

Josh Hoover: The quarterback and anchor of one of the best passing offenses in the country, Hoover is among the nation’s leaders in passing yards with 1,774 with 14 touchdowns to four interceptions. However, he will face a sturdy Houston pass defense that is 30th in EPA/Play so far this season. 

Houston vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

While TCU has far more explosive playmakers, I believe this Houston team can keep a lid on the Horned Frogs offense that has struggled to get the necessary margin on its opponents. 

TCU had to rally to beat Stanford and had to overcome some poor decisions to get past Kansas. Further, the team squandered a double digit lead to UCF at home a few weeks back. 

While Houston won’t have the offensive firepower to go toe-to-toe with the likes of Hoover and the TCU offense that is 13th in EPA/Pass, the defense should be able to hold up its end of the bargain. The Cougs defense has been strong all season despite playing better competition, ranking 19th in success rate and 45th in EPA/Pass. 

The Cougars will look to shorten this game and avoid getting into a shootout with TCU while I question the Horned Frogs ability to win with the necessary margin and do the heavy lifting to get over this total. 

I’ll avoid taking the points with Houston and instead angle for the under with the Cougars offense being that big of a question mark. 

PICK: UNDER 49.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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