How to Live Bet the Masters After the First Round Based on a 20-Year Trend

Brian Giuffra | Apr 10, 2025

Scottie Scheffler was inside the Top 5 after the first round both times he won the Masters. / Rob Schumacher, Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK

It might be tempting to look down the leaderboard past the Top 10 after the first round of the Masters and attempt to find value on a player who got off to a slow start. 

Don’t do it. It’s only paid off twice in the last two decades. And both times it was Tiger Woods. 

In the last 20 years, only Woods has come from outside the Top 10 after the first round to win the Masters. That came in 2005 and 2019 when Woods was T33 and T11, respectively after Round 1. 

This year, the list of players inside the Top 10 are: Justin Rose (-7), Corey Conners (-4), Scottie Scheffler (-4), Ludvig Aberg (-4), Tyrrell Hatton (-3), Bryson DeChambeau (-3), Aaron Rai (-2), Harris English (-2), Jason Day (-2), and Akshay Bhatia (-2).

Over the last five years, it’s been even harder to earn a comeback win at Augusta, as no one from outside the Top 3 after Round 1 has won the tournament. Scottie Scheffler was in second place when he won last year, Jon Rahm was T1 in 2023, Scheffler was T3 in 2022, Hideki Matsuyama was T2 in 2021 and Dustin Johnson was T1 in 2021. 

This year, there are only four players who fit that bill, Rose, Conners, Scheffler and Aberg.

Here's how the odds shake out after the first round from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Masters Odds After the First Round

• Scottie Scheffler +200
• Ludvig Åberg +700
• Justin Rose +700
• Bryson DeChambeau +900
• Rory McIlroy +1200
• Corey Conners +1600
• Tyrrell Hatton +2500
• Collin Morikawa +3500
• Shane Lowry +4000
• Viktor Hovland +4000

While betting players outside the Top 10 after Round 1 has proven mostly fruitless at Augusta, this does provide guidance on where to invest if you want to bet live the outright market. The odds won’t be as long, but looking to the top of the leaderboard is the way to go. Or at least it has been at Augusta. 

Besides Woods, Adam Scott was the farthest down the leaderboard after Round 1 to win in the last 20 years when was T10 in 2013. Danny Willet was T9 after Round 1 in 2016, Charl Schwartzel was T7 in 2011 and Angel Cabrera was T6 in 2009. Outside that, every winner was inside the Top 5 after Round 1 since 2005. 

That means 14 of the last 20 Masters champions were inside the Top 5 after the first round. That’s 70%. This is no fad. That’s a trend. So you can further narrow your focus to the Top 5 and feel 70% confident the winner will come from that group this year too.

This is meant simply to inform bettors and golf fans alike. It’s fun imagining a massive comeback win on golf’s biggest stage. It just doesn't happen often, though it's not impossible.

Nick Faldo famously erased a six-stroke deficit on Sunday to win in 1996, Woods was seven behind in 2005 when he pulled his comeback. Willet was five behind Jordan Spieth with six holes to go when he won in 2016. 

Those are mostly outliers, however. If you’re playing the statistics, stick to the top of the leaderboard live betting after Round 1. It’s not sexy, but it can be profitable. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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