Illinois vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 22, 2025

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) celebrates after sinking a three point basket in the second half of the NCAA Tournament First Round game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Xavier Musketeers at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on Friday, March 21, 2025. Xavier was eliminated from the tournament, losing 86-73, to Illinois. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 3 seed Kentucky will be a betting underdog on Sunday in Milwaukee against No. 6 seed Illinois in what should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the second round of the NCAA Tournament. 

The Fighting Illini, who were pegged as a dark horse in the Midwest Region, are favored in the second round against the Wildcats, as both teams looked the part in the first round with double digit victories. 

Can Illinois make good on being a favorite? What about a sky high total in the 170’s? Let’s break down this game from a betting perspective below. 

Illinois vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Illinois: -1.5 (-115)
• Kentucky: +1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Illinois: -128
• Kentucky: +106

Total: 170.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Illinois vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 23rd
• Game Time: 5:15 PM EST
• Venue: Fiserv Forum
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Illinois Record: 22-12
• Kentucky Record: 23-11

Illinois vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The freshman guard had it all working in the first round against Xavier, scoring 16 points with nine rebounds and 10 assists. While he was still plagued by turnovers, he had six in the win, the conservative Kentucky defense will not pose as much of a threat in that department. He can be in for another big effort on Sunday. 

Kentucky

Otega Oweh: The Oklahoma transfer continued his torrid second half of the season, scoring 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists as Kentucky pulled away from Troy in the second half to advance. Oweh is a force at getting to the rim with an emerging perimeter game, how will he continue his NCAA Tournament performance? 

Illinois vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

With two fast pace offenses that have bucket getters all along the roster, I’m going to side with the over in this one. 

While the Illinois defense is formidable, the Kentucky offense will be comfortable against the opponents drop coverage. The Wildcats are flush with players that can score from off the dribble, one of the best offenses in the country in dribble jump shots while also able to use its off-ball motion to put pressure on Illinois’ over-playing defense that wants to run teams off the three-point line. 

Meanwhile, Illinois’ up-tempo attack should give Kentucky fits in transition, similar to how Alabama did in SEC play. The Fighting Illini have some similarities to the Crimson Tide, who scored 102, 96 and 99 points in two games against the Wildcats. 

On the year, Kentucky has allowed KenPom top 20 offenses in adjusted offensive efficiency to score to allow nearly 94 points per game in seven instances, and I believe with Illinois’ up-tempo attack, ranking top 20 in the country in adjusted tempo, this game will fly over the total. 

PICK: OVER 170.5 (-115, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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