Indiana vs. Notre Dame Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | 11 Hours Ago

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (13) hands the ball off to running back Jeremiyah Love (4) during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two in-state foes will spark a rivalry on Friday night when Indiana travels to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

In a historic event with the first-ever 12-team postseason in the sport, there will be plenty of eyeballs around the marquee event. Of course, there is a ton of betting intrigue around this one with Indiana one of the best stories in college football this season trying to prove its validity as a contender against a historic program like Notre Dame. 

Here’s the latest odds as well as our final score prediction for this first round matchup. 

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Indiana: +7.5 (-120)
• Notre Dame: -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Indiana: +220
• Notre Dame: -275

Total: 51.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Final Score Prediction

Neither team has played an incredibly difficult schedule, but there are far more questions for the upstart Hoosiers, who have blitzed its lesser opponents but also have struggled against some of the high-pedigree teams on its schedule. Notre Dame mirrors the teams that Indiana has struggled with to date. 

Here’s what we said in our full betting preview. 

 IU has an opportunity to attack through the air, but will it be able to? Or are the Hoosiers also benefitting from a relatively easy slate of opponents? In the team’s matchup against a CFP foe, Ohio State, the team averaged less than three yards per play. Outside of the team’s first drive of the game, the team averaged less than two yards per play and had only 22 passing yards. 

I do believe that the team will be forced to take to the air against Notre Dame’s stout defensive line, and with a better game plan that can test a potential weak spot, I think the Hoosiers can find better success than the struggle it had against Notre Dame. 

Notre Dame is a run-first offense that wants to use its physicality with elite running back Jeremiah Love and dual-threat signal caller Riley Leonard, but what happens if Indiana’s defensive line shows up and the passing game connects? Notre Dame has been rarely forced out of its preferred game script, but there is a path to that being the case on Friday night. 

If Indiana can put Notre Dame behind the sticks, I’m curious how the ND offense functions. 

To me, the best case for Indiana to stay in this game is to force the issue and make the Irish have to expand the playbook that focuses on more passing. With more scoreboard pressure, Notre Dame will need to move away from its methodical run-focused approach and get into more of a higher-scoring affair with the Hoosiers. 

The key in this one is if IU can prove its vertical passing game can translate to the CFP level. If Rourke and co. are able to move the ball down the field, that plays into Indiana’s hands and the team is live for the upset. However, it's fair to be concerned about the jump in class and that the team doesn’t have the firepower to hang with a defense this elite. 

With a slightly below-average total, I will go over on the idea that Indiana attacks through the air, and Notre Dame is forced to push the ball as well. Both Louisville and USC were able to move the ball at an above-average clip against the Fighting Irish, arguably the two best offenses the team has faced this season. 

I think this game is much tighter than the line implies, and the Hoosiers are live for the upset. 

Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 27

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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