Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds and Key Players for College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | 16 Hours Ago

Nov 30, 2024; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) passes the ball while Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Antonio Stevens (11) defends in the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Indiana and Notre Dame meet in the first ever on-campus first round matchup of the College Football Playoff.

The Hoosiers will make the short trip across the state to face Notre Dame in South Bend with a spot in the CFP quarterfinal on the line. The Hoosiers have been one of the best stories in college football this season and will look to beat a historic program in Notre Dame as it continues its season.

However, the Fighting Irish have been dominant this season, can it take care of business against what will be its toughest foe of the season?

Here’s our first round betting preview.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Indiana: +7.5 (-115)
Notre Dame: -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Indiana: +230
Notre Dame: -285

Total: 51.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Indiana vs. Notre Dame How to Watch

Date: Friday, December 20
Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC/ESPN

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Key Players to Watch

Indiana

Kurtis Rourke: The Ohio transfer has enjoyed the best season of his career, finishing top 10 in the Heisman Trophy voting as the leader of this Hoosiers offense. Rourke has completed 70% of his passes for 2,827 yards with 27 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions.

Notre Dame

Riley Leonard: The Duke transfer has been incredibly potent under center this season. He has passed for 2,092 yards, but has been amongst the most difficult quarterbacks to tackle on the year, rushing for 721 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has added another 16 through the air with only five interceptions.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

There are a ton of interesting matchup angles to take in this game.

Let’s start with the Hoosiers offense against Marcus Freeman’s defense of the Fighting Irish.

While Notre Dame has built arguably the best statistical resume of any team in the country, it has done so against a relatively soft strength of schedule. After facing Texas A&M in a defensive struggle in Week 1, the team didn’t face many elite offenses outside of the unique triple options of Navy and Army during the season.

When the team faced a high octane passing offense of USC, the team allowed nearly 10 yards per play, but benefitted from not one, but two pick-six’s en route to a double digit win.

I think it’s fair to be concerned for Notre Dame’s secondary that is down its best cornerback in Benjamin Morrison and has been lightly tested. The Hoosiers push the ball down the field at a high rate and have done so with devastating efficiency. The team is No. 1 in the nation in EPA/Pass and Rourke has been money on his deep ball, completing more than 52% of his passes more than 10 yards down the field (nearly 44% of his dropbacks) with 18 big time throws to only five turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.

So, IU has an opportunity to attack through the air, but will it be able to? Or are the Hoosiers also benefitting from a relatively easy slate of opponents? In the team’s matchup against a CFP foe, Ohio State, the team averaged less than three yards per play. Outside of the team’s first drive of the game, the team averaged less than two yards per play and had only 22 passing yards.

I do believe that the team will be forced to take to the air against Notre Dame’s stout defensive line, and with a better game plan that can test a potential weak spot, I think the Hoosiers can find better success than the struggle it had against Notre Dame.

Meanwhile, when looking at that Ohio State game, Indiana’s defensive line proved its viability in the trenches. The team is tops in the country in defensive line yards and is second in the nation in yards per carry allowed. This is impactful against a Leonard and Jeremiah Love-led Notre Dame offense that is reliant on using the run game to get ahead of schedule. The Irish average more than six yards per carry, third in the country, but are limited when it comes to big play making in the passing game, 120th in explosive pass rate.

If Indiana can put Notre Dame behind the sticks, I’m curious how the ND offense functions.

To me, the best case for Indiana to stay in this game is to force the issue and make the Irish have to expand the play book that focuses on more passing. With more scoreboard pressure, Notre Dame will need to move away from its methodical run-focused approach and get into more of a higher scoring affair with the Hoosiers.

The key in this one is if IU can prove it’s vertical passing game can translate to the CFP level. If Rourke and co. are able to move the ball down the field, that plays into Indiana’s hands and the team is live for the upset. However, its fair to be concerned about the jump in class and that the team doesn’t have the firepower to hang with a defense this elite.

Overall, I landed on the over in this game below the key number of 51. I believe that Indiana hits a few of those big pass plays that tests the relatively green Notre Dame secondary and puts some points on the board before Notre Dame ultimately settles in and scores a competitive home win.

PICK: OVER 50.5