Insights from the Book: Bettors Predict Chiefs vs. Lions Super Bowl LIX

The public may be rooting for a Chiefs/Lions Super Bowl, but the sportsbook is not.

Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) looks to tackle Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. on Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Sharp bettors and public bettors alike are betting on a Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl.

According to the latest data from BetMGM, the Chiefs are the favorites to win it all, moving from +750 at opening to +600 today.  15% of tickets at the sportsbook are backing Kansas City to run it back. 

Perhaps even more telling: 20.9% of the handle (money) is also on the Chiefs, indicating sharp bettors are also buying into a modern dynasty for Kansas City.  Detroit comes in with the second-highest ticket share for the Super Bowl (11.2%) and the second-highest share of the handle (11.3%).

When these two teams squared off last season, the Lions edged the Chiefs 21-20.

It's no surpise the Chiefs are also AFC favorites once again at +300. Nearly 30% of the money is on Kansas CIty to win the conference. 

Despite the 49ers being the NFC favorites (+275), the Lions have the highest share of the tickets in the conference with 26.8% of the share. Detroit also has 28.2% of the handle to win the NFC.     

Patrick Mahomes remains the favorite for NFL MVP in 2024, according to BetMGM.  

Mahomes’s odds have improved since opening at +600,  and the two-time regular season MVP now has +500 odds to win a third.   Mahomes also has the highest number of tickets at 13.3% and the highest handle (money) at 15.7% to take home his third regular-season MVP award.  

Needless to say, the sportsbook will have their rooting interests elsewhere. 

Other interesting movement

The Houston Texans have jumped to +1400 for Super Bowl LIX after opening at +2500. The Green Bay Packers have moved to +1600 after opening at +1600. 

A bet on a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Super Bowl pays +2500 at DraftKings. 

A bet on a Texans/Packers Super Bowl pays +9000.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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