Iowa State vs. Arizona State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Big 12 Conference Championship Game

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Nov 30, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) against the Arizona Wildcats during the Territorial Cup at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The chaotic Big 12 season comes to an end in the title game with Iowa State taking on Arizona State. 

The Sun Devils have thrived in its first season in the league, on a heater into the close of the season and favored to win the Big 12. The team will face Iowa State, who has survived a handful of close calls down the stretch of the season to return to the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2020. 

Can Arizona State’s dynamic offense out-pace Iowa State’s defense? Or can Rocco Becht and the Cyclones pass happy offense create enough explosive plays to win the Big 12 title? 

Here’s our betting preview for this league championship game. 

Iowa State vs. Arizona State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Iowa State: +2.5 (-108)
• Arizona State: -2.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Iowa State: +112
• Arizona State: -134

Total: 50.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Iowa State vs. Arizona State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 7
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: AT&T Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Iowa State Record: 10-2
• Arizona State Record: 10-1

Iowa State vs. Arizona State Key Players to Watch

Iowa State 

Rocco Becht: Becht continues to be a threat with his arm, leading an offense that is 32nd in EPA/Pass on the season behind a veteran offensive line that has only allowed 15 sacks on the year. With a dynamic group of receivers, can Becht find success through the air to send Iowa State to the College Football Playoff?

Arizona State

Cam Skattebo: Skattebo is likely to get some down ballot Heisman Trophy votes this season with his stellar play for the Sun Devils, rushing for 1,398 yards with 19 total touchdowns in 11 games this season. He’ll have an advantageous matchup against a poor Iowa State rush defense, which can lead to a crowning moment for the senior running back. 

Iowa State vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

This matchup sets up very well for the Sun Devils to win the Big 12 Championship in their first season in the league. 

Iowa State has been skating by over the past month of the season, winning two straight after a two game slide, but neither win instills much confidence in the team’s current form. The Cyclones won by three on the road against Utah on a fourth string quarterback and beat Kansas State by eight despite playing even on the scoreboard. 

The Cyclones rush defense continues to be a big issue for the team, outside the top 90 in EPA/Rush and allowing more than five yards per carry while tackling at a bottom 15 rate, per Pro Football Focus. 

All of that is a big issue against an ASU offense that revolves around its elite running back Skattebo, who is the leader of a strong Sun Devils ground game that is top 30 in EPA/Rush. 

It’s worth noting that the Sun Devils may be down their leading receiver Jordyn Tyson, who suffered a shoulder injury against Arizona and was spotted with a sling on his arm during the game. However, the Sun Devils ability to run may make for a good set up for Sam Leavitt and the team’s passing offense that is top 30 in EPA/Pass. Leavitt has been strong in his first season in Kenny Dillingham’s offense, only making three turnover worthy plays this season. 

Meanwhile, Iowa State is built around its passing game, which is the way to beat the Arizona State defense, which is around the national average in EPA/Pass. However, the team is not consistent enough down-to-down to keep up with the Sun Devils. 

The Cyclones are outside the top 90 nationally in success rate while Arizona State is top 15. 

I’m going to trust the more complete team with a clear path to victory here. 

PICK: Arizona State ML -134

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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