Jaguars 2024 Win Total Projection (Can Jacksonville Return to Postseason?)

Reed Wallach | Jun 19, 2024

Jan 7, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) stands in the pocket against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports / Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

The Jaguars weren’t able to follow up its 2022 success in 2023, as injuries and inconsistent play derailed the team's quest for back-to-back playoff berths. 

Jacksonville did make a splash in the offseason, locking up former No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence to a long-term extension, and will hope that better health from him can get the team back on track in what’s an evolving AFC South. 

The Jags are viewed as a fringe playoff team in 2024, but with a high ceiling that resulted in an AFC South title and a playoff win just two years ago, the team can smash these expectations. 

Here is how the Jaguars are lined from a regular season win total perspective at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jaguars Win Total Projection for 2024 Season

• 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Will Trevor Lawrence Live Up to His Contract?

The Jags, despite falling short of its playoff goal in 2023, inked Lawrence to a massive contract extension in 2024.

Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence reached agreement on a five-year, $275 million extension, including $200 million guaranteed - $142 million at signing, per source. pic.twitter.com/DfBwA7TSlz

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 13, 2024

Lawrence was hobbled by injuries during the stretch run of the Jags’ season, with the playoffs still within its grasp in the last week of the season. Despite a below-standard season in Jacksonville, the team still won nine games. 

This year, oddsmakers are giving the Jags a 53.4% chance to win nine or more games. 

The Jaguars will hope that Lawrence will be fully healthy, and the team can cash in on a new-look skill position group that features first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. and offseason signing Gabe Davis. 

Meanwhile, the defense will look to continue to be stout as the AFC South continues to evolve. 

While the Houston Texans are now the hunted in the division after going from worst to first last season, just like the Jaguars had done the year prior, the Colts will hope that second-year pro Anthony Richardson can stay healthy and make an impact. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans are entering a rebuild under first-year head coach Brian Callahan. 

Quickly, Lawrence has become the most seasoned veteran in the division. 

The reason for the Jaguars' subdued win total projection is likely due to the schedule, which begins with playing four straight playoff teams (Dolphins, Browns, Bills, Texans). The team will face Houston again later on in the season, in addition to the Packers, Eagles, and Lions. It’s worth mentioning that Jacksonville draws the Jets on its schedule as well. 

However, with a healthy Lawrence, the Jags have proven to be a divisional threat and one that can win a playoff game. Can the group pounce on tempered expectations?

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