Jaguars vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 3

Jennifer Piacenti | Sep 18, 2024

Sep 12, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) drops back with the ball during the first half against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars for the early Monday Night Football game in NFL Week 3.

Buffalo is 2-0 to start the season, and it will come into this contest with plenty of extra rest. Not only are the Bills playing in a Monday Night Game, but their Week 2 game was the Thursday Night tilt vs. the Dolphins. 

The Jaguars will be looking for their first win of the season.  Trevor Lawrence and company need to get on track fast in order to keep up with the 2-0 Houston Texans.

Jaguars vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Jaguars +5.5
• Bills -5.5 

Moneyline

• Jaguars +200
• Bills -245

Total

• 45.5

Jaguars vs. Bills How to Watch

• Date: Monday, September 23
• Game Time: 7:30 EST 
• Venue: Highmark Stadium Orchard Park 
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Jaguars Record: 0-2
• Bills Record: 2-0

Jaguars vs. Bills Betting Trends

• The Bills are 2-0 ATS to open the season. They have been favorites in both games they won.
• The Jaguars are 0-2 ATS to open the season. They were underdogs in both. 
• When these teams met in October 2023, the Bills won 25-20. The spread was -5. 
• Josh Allen is just 3-5 career on Monday Night Football. 
• Trevor Lawrence lost his only MNF start in 2023

Jaguars vs. Bills Injury Reports

Jaguars Injury Report

• RB Tank BIgsby (shoulder)- questionable 
• S Darnell Savage - questionable 
• Evan Engram (hamstring)- questionable 
• DT Tyler Lacy (toe)- questionable 

Bills Injury Report

• CB Taron Johnson (forearm)- questionable
• LB Matt Milano (bicep) OUT
• DE Javon Solomon- questionable 

Jaguars vs. Bills Key Players to Watch

Jaguars WR Gabe Davis

Revenge game narrative!  Davis returns to Orchard Park, catching passes from Trevor Lawrence instead.   Davis leads all Jacksonville pass-catchers with ten targets this season.   It’s not an easy matchup for Davis, but the motivation should be there.  I'm considering an anytime touchdown prop for Davis who had two red zone targets vs. Cleveland in Week 2.

Bills RB James Cook

Cook had a career game vs. the Dolphins in  Week 2, running for 78 yards and two touchdowns while also catching his lone target for 17 yards and another score. I like a few more targets to go his way on Monday vs. a tougher Jaguars defense that is allowing just 3.73 yards per attempt. 

Jaguars vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

Joe Brady’s offense has established the run this season, and between James Cook and Josh Allen, it has been effective.  Despite concerns there are needs at wide receiver, the Bills have won both games to open the season, also covering the spread as favorites. However, this could be the week we see those receivers get going. 

The Jaguars have allowed the third-most passing yards (524) to opposing QBs this season.   They’ve also allowed opposing running backs 12 catches and 105 yards to open the season with a 75% catch-rate.

The Buffalo offense has averaged 32.5 points per game this season. 

The Jaguars defense has allowed an average of just 19 points per game this season. 

The Jaguars have opened the season 0-2, failing to cover the spread as underdogs in each contest. 

The Jaguars offense has sputtered out of the gate, scoring just 15 points per game this season.   Trevor Lawrence has just a 51% completion-rate through two games with just 345 passing yards and a single passing touchdown. 

He could find Monday night tough vs. a Buffalo defense that has allowed just 5.53 yards per attempt to opposing passers this season with two total passing touchdowns.  Jacksonville will need to lean a little more on Travis Etienne and possibly involve him creatively in the passing game following the blueprint of DeVon Achane in Week 2.  

The Bills have allowed opposing runners 135 receiving yards with a 93% catch-rate this season. 

Buffalo has rushed the ball 57% of the time this season, while Jacksonville has passed 55% of the time. 

I trust Josh Allen to find his receivers on Monday Night more than I trust this Jaguars offense to wake up, especially down another receiver in Evan Engram.  I’ll buy the points for the home team on extra rest Monday night. 

Pick:  Bills -5.5

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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