Jaguars vs. Dolphins Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 1 (Back Tyreek Hill, Christian Kirk on Sunday)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Miami Dolphins-Jacksonville Jaguars matchup in NFL Week 1.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill. / Jim Rassol / USA TODAY NETWORK

Two playoff hopefuls square off in Miami in Week 1 of the 2024 season, as the Miami Dolphins play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Jacksonville narrowly missed the playoffs last season, but it still finished over .500 in Trevor Lawrence’s third NFL season.

Now, Lawrence has some new weapons – Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis – to replace Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley on offense. 

In Miami, Tua Tagovailoa is an interesting prop target after leading the Dolphins to the No. 1 offense in terms of yardage and No. 2 in terms of scoring in 2023. 

While I’m not personally targeting Tua, I do have a pick for his No. 1 receiver in this matchup’s best NFL props. 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Jaguars vs. Dolphins

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Gabe Davis Longest Reception OVER 18.5 Yards (-120)
• Christian Kirk OVER 4.5 Receptions (-145)
• Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)

Gabe Davis Longest Reception OVER 18.5 Yards (-120)

Last season, Gabe Davis averaged 16.58 yards per reception with the Buffalo Bills, and he’s known for stretching the field on the outside.

With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram likely being the players that move the chains underneath, I’d expect Davis to get loose for a few long looks down the field. He had multiple games where he averaged over 20 yards per catch in the 2023 season. 

Christian Kirk OVER 4.5 Receptions (-145)

I absolutely love Christian Kirk in the prop market this season. 

He cleared this prop in five of his 12 games last season, and Kirk received 85 targets in 12 games. The previous season, Kirk made a career-high 84 receptions on 133 targets.

Lawrence doesn’t have a ton of familiar faces on offense, but Kirk is one of them. He should be peppered with looks in Week 1. 

Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)

There were just five games in the 2023 season that Tyreek Hill didn’t find the end zone, so getting him at -125 (an implied probability of 55.56) to score feels like a steal.

The star receiver led the NFL with 13 receiving scores, and he’s clearly the No. 1 target for Tagovailoa in this offense.

With the Dolphins down Odell Beck Jr. (PUP) and River Cracraft, Hill and Waddle should be out there as much as they can handle in Week 1. 

Tyreek is a threat to score every time he touches the ball because of his elite speed, and he scored in 11 games in 2023. He’s a great bet – even at -125 – to score in Week 1.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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