Jaguars vs. Lions Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 11 (Can’t Trust Mac Jones)

Do the Lions have yet another blowout win on the docket?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones. / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars are massive underdogs in Week 11 against the Detroit Lions as they’re expected to have Mac Jones under center for the second straight week with Trevor Lawrence dealing with a shoulder injury. 

Jaguars HC Doug Pederson says QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) will be out this week. Optimistic that he can play after the bye week.

— Michael DiRocco (@ESPNdirocco) November 13, 2024

Jones struggled mightily against Minnesota in Week 10, completing just 14 of his 22 pass attempts for 111 yards and two picks in a 12-7 loss. Now, he has to take on one of the most lethal teams in the NFL.

Can Detroit cover a nearly two-touchdown spread? No team has been better against the number than the Lions this season, even though they’re coming off a scare against the Houston Texans in Week 10. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s my final score prediction for this Week 11 matchup. 

Jaguars vs. Lions Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Jaguars +13 (-108)
• Lions -13 (-112)

Moneyline

• Jaguars: +525
• Lions: -750

Total

• 47 (Over -108/Under -112)

Detroit is an NFL-best 7-2 against the spread this season, winning by an average margin of 12.6 points per game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 6-4 ATS despite a 2-8 record and 0-5 mark on the road. 

Jaguars vs. Lions Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan isn’t going to get cute in this game. He explained why he’s laying the points with the Lions in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every NFL game, every week: 

It's a massive spread, the biggest of the NFL season, but I'm not afraid to back the Lions. Their team has been dominant all season long, on both sides of the football. They're now sixth in the league in EPA per play and third in opponent EPA per play. They have no weak point in all three aspects of the game and are built to roll over teams like the Jaguars.

Not only does Jacksonville have the worst defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in opponent EPA per play, but they were abysmal offensively with Mac Jones at quarterback. They averaged a measly 3.3 yards per play against the Vikings in Week 10.

As long as the Lions don't get in turnover trouble, they're going to run through the Jaguars at home.

If three interceptions of Sam Darnold last week weren’t enough for Jacksonville to get a win, I’m having a hard time seeing it competing with the best team in the NFC with Jones under center. 

I agree with MacMillan, the Lions win in a rout. 

Final Score Prediction: Lions 38, Jaguars 13

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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