Jaguars vs. Texans Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Buy Low on Struggling Jags?)

Can the Jaguars turn their season around?

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ season went from bad to worse in Week 3 when they lost to the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. 

Now, the Jaguars are in danger of falling to 0-4, sitting as seven-point underdogs to the AFC South-leading Houston Texans in Week 4. 

Houston is coming off a terrible loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but it has put together a few impressive wins over Indianapolis and Chicago through three weeks. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s a look at my prediction for the final score of this matchup. 

Jaguars vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Jaguars +7 (-115)
• Texans -7 (-105)

Moneyline

• Jaguars: +250
• Texans: -310

Total

• 45.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Jaguars vs. Texans Score Prediction

It’s hard to be worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars right now, but SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan had an interesting take on them in his Road to 272 – where he bets every NFL game every season. 

The Jaguars could not be lower without there being serious injuries so I have no choice but to buy low on this team and bet on them for the third straight game. Their results were disastrous the first two weeks but they didn't play as poorly as the final score indicated. The first time people saw them play was on Monday Night Football against the Bills where they DID play as bad as their record, and now the market is treating them like a bottom-five team in the league.

The Houston Texans haven't been able to win with margin at all this year and are coming off a bad loss to the Vikings. They're also outside the top 10 in most metrics, including Net Yards per Play where they rank 12th.

Even though the Texans are 2-1, they have not covered the spread (0-2-1 ATS) this season, so I’m not sold on them winning by eight or more points in Week 4. 

The Texans had just seven points in Week 3, and they’ve scored less than 20 points in back-to-back matchups. Not only that, but Joe Mixon remains banged up and that has crushed a strong running game.

If Iain’s taking the points, we’re going to predict the score that way. 

Final Score Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 17

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