Japan vs. Germany Olympic Basketball Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Group B

Betting odds, pick and prediction for Olympic group play in men's basketball between Japan and Germany.

Germany guard Dennis Schroder. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Fresh off of a near-upset in an exhibition against the United States, Germany will look to defend its 2023 FIBA World Cup title when it begins Group B play in the 2024 Paris Olympics on Saturday. 

The Germans will take on Japan, which is led by Los Angeles Lakers forward Rui Hachimura, on Saturday, and oddsmakers have favored Dennis Schroder and company by 17.5 points. 

Germany should be in the mix to medal, while Japan is one of the teams at the end of the odds list to win gold in Paris. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, rosters and my pick for Saturday morning’s matchup. 

Japan vs. Germany Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Japan +17.5 (-110)
• Germany -17.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Japan: +1000
• Germany: -1800

Total

• 174 (Over -112/Under -108)

Japan vs. Germany How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, July 27
• Time: 7:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): FuboTV, Peacock
• Japan record: 0-0
• Germany record: 0-0

Japan vs. Germany Odds to Win the Gold Medal

• Japan: +50000
• Germany: +3000

Japan vs. Germany Rosters and Key Players to Watch

Japan

• Yuki Togashi
• Akira Jacobs
• Yuki Kawamura
• Makoto Hiejima
• Kai Toews
• Rui Hachimura
• Yuta Watanabe
• Yudai Baba
• Josh Hawkinson
• Keisei Tominaga
• Hugh Watanabe
• Yoshii Hirotaka

Hachimura had a strong showing in the 2020 Olympics, averaging 22.3 points per game while shooting 38.1 percent from beyond the arc. But Japan did not win a game. It lost all three games by double digits. 

Rui and Yuta Wantanabe highlight the NBA talent on this Japan roster. 

Germany

• Isaac Bonga
• Daniel Theis
• Oscar Da Silva
• Johannes Thiemann
• Johannes Voigtmann
• Niels Giffey
• Maodo Lo
• Franz Wagner
• Andreas Obst
• Moritz Wagner
• Dennis Schroder
• Nick Weiler-Babb

The 2023 FIBA World Cup Champions feature a ton of NBA talent in Schroder, Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner, Daniel Theis, and Isaac Bonga. 

Schroder has averaged over 19 points per game in eight FIBA World Cup games, and I expect him to lead this Germany team that may be getting a little more love after keeping things close with Team USA earlier in the week. 

Japan vs. Germany Prediction and Pick

This is a pretty simple pick for me, as I’m going to lay the points with the defending FIBA World Cup champs. 

Germany knocked off Team USA – albeit with a worse roster – last summer, and it has the top-line NBA talent to compete with just about any team in the world, as it showed in the exhibition with the USA on Monday. 

Japan struggled in the 2020 Olympics, losing by 11 to Spain before getting trounced by Serbai (35-point loss) and Argentina (20-point loss).

While Hachimura is a solid player, I’m not sure he’d even be the second-best player on the German squad, which is extremely concerning for how Japan will fare if this turns into a high-scoring game. 

I don’t think the Japanese have enough scoring talent, and Germany has proven it can win on the international stage. I’ll back Schroder and company to win in a blowout on Saturday. 

Pick: Germany -17.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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