Japan vs. United States Olympic Basketball Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Group C

Can Team USA start the Olympics with a win?

Team USA center A'ja Wilson. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY

The United States women’s basketball team opens its pool play action at the 2024 Paris Olympics on Monday afternoon against Japan – a rematch of the Gold Medal Game in the 2020 Olympics. 

The United States won that meeting by 15 points, 90-75, capturing a seventh consecutive gold medal in the process. 

Japan is set as a massive underdog in this pool play matchup, but it does return some key players from the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) including Maki Takada, who scored 17 points against Team USA in the final. 

Based on the -1800 odds that Team USA has been given at DraftKings, the implied probability that the Americans finish with the gold medal is 94.74 percent. 

Can the Americans get started on the right foot on Monday? Here’s a look at the latest odds, rosters, and a prediction for the opening matchup against Japan. 

Japan vs. United States Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Japan +19.5 (-110)
• United States -19.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Japan: +1400
• United States: -3200

Total

• 161.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Japan vs. United States How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 29
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• USA record: 0-0
• Japan record: 0-0

Japan vs. United States Rosters

United States

• Napheesa Collier
• Kahleah Copper
• Chelsea Gray
• Brittney Griner
• Sabrina Ionescu
• Jewell Loyd
• Kelsey Plum
• Breanna Stewart
• Diana Taurasi
• Alyssa Thomas
• A'ja Wilson
• Jackie Young

Japan

• Himawari Akaho
• Saki Hayashi
• Rui Machida
• Evelyn Mawuli
• Stephanie Mawuli
• Saori Miyazaki
• Yuki Miyazawa
• Nako Motohashi
• Maki Takada
• Nanaka Todo
• Mai Yamamoto
• Asami Yoshida

Japan vs. United States Prediction and Pick

One thing that is exciting about pool play in the Olympics is that every second, every point matters. 

Tiebreakers for the team that advance to the knockout stage are based on point differential and head-to-head matchups, so there is no such thing as “garbage time” in these opening games. 

A 10-0 to cut a deficit and close the gap at the end of a game could pay massive dividends down the line. 

So, with that in mind, I’m going to lay the points with Team USA in what should be a solid test to open things up this summer. 

The United States already knows that Japan is one of the better teams in the world, so I expect a focused group to come out on Monday night (this game will tip at 9 p.m. in Paris).

It’s also worth noting that Team USA was up by 22 points late in the fourth quarter of the gold medal game in 2021, but Japan closed the game on a bit of a run since there was no incentive for the Americans to keep running up the score.

In pool play, that won’t be the case. 

I’ll lay the points with A’ja Wilson and company to set the tone in this tournament. 

Pick: Team USA -19.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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