Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka Women's US Open Final Betting Preview, Prediction and Best Bets

Reed Wallach | Sep 6, 2024

Sep 5, 2024; Flushing, NY, USA; Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus hits the ball to Emma Navarro of the United States on day eleven of the U.S. Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

After Coco Gauff defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open Finals last year, Sabalenka has proven she is the best hard court player in the sport.

Now, Sabalenka has another chance to win her first US Open title, this time agianst another American in Jessica Pegula, who is into her first ever Grand Slam final. Can Sabalenka, the heavy favorite, come out on top in her third chance at the trophy?

Below, you'll find the betting odds, our preview, and best bet for the US Open Finals on Saturday.

Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds, Spread and Total

Moneyline

• Pegula: +245
• Sabalenka: -310

Spread

• Pegula: +4.5 (-124)
• Sabalenka: -4.5 (-108)

Total: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction and Pick

Sabalenka has been the best hard court women’s tennis player for quite some time now. With an overwhelming first serve, coupled with fantastic ground strokes, Sabalenka has built up a 42-5 record between the US Open and Australian Open since 2021, including two titles in Melbourne and two runners up in New York. 

This is setting up for a coronation for Sabalenka, who owns a 5-2 head-to-head record against the surging Pegula, and beat her counterpart last month in the Cincinnati Open finals in straight sets. 

Pegula rallied to beat Karolina Muchova in the semifinals on Thursday to advance to her first ever Grand Slam title match. 

The American will need to be at her best on return while sporting an elite first serve, similar to when she won 77% of first serve points against No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals, but I believe Sabalenka’s ability to limit break chances for her opponent is going to be the difference in this one. 

Pegula will certainly have the crowd on her side, but I believe Sabalenka improves from her defeat to Coco Gauff last year and hoists the trophy in straight sets against Pegula. 

PICK: UNDER 21.5 Games (-122)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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