Jets Playoff Odds Surge After Win Over Texans, But It's a Suckers Bet

Why betting the Jets to make the playoffs is a mistake.

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Texans. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The New York Jets' postseason hopes were on life support last night following a litany of first-half errors that nearly completely derailed their season – and cost Malachi Corley anytime TD bettors money when he dropped the ball a moment before entering the end zone untouched; sorry if you were one of those people. 

Thankfully for them, a second-half offense surge, highlighted by an insane one-handed catch by Garrett Wilson, sent them to a massive win over the Texans. 

In the process, they also saw their playoff odds boon, though you still shouldn't bet it.

Jets Playoff Odds

Heading into Thursday night’s game against the Texans, the Jets were +430 to make the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook. After their win, which lifted their record to 3-6, they’re now +300, which represents a 25% implied probability of happening. 

The Jets have the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL for the rest of the season and play only one team with a current record above .500, the Bills (6-2). Their toughest opponents are the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Colts, all teams with 4-4 records. Their game against the Colts two weeks from now will be critical to their playoff hopes. 

Outside of that, they face the Jaguars (2-6), Rams (3-4) and Dolphins (2-5) twice. 

Jets Remaining Schedule 

Week 10: @ Cardinals 
Week 11: vs. Colts 
Week 12: BYE WEEK
Week 13: vs Seahawks 
Week 14: @ Dolphins
Week 15: @ Jaguars 
Week 16: vs Rams
Week 17: @ Buffalo 
Week 18: vs Dolphins 

Should You Bets the Jets to Make the Playoffs?

Before anyone rushes out to bet the Jets to make the playoffs, let’s consider what they have to do the rest of the season to make it to the show. 

Last year, the Steelers got the final AFC playoff spot with a 10-7 record. Currently, the Chargers hold the final playoff spot with a 4-3 record. Above them are the Ravens and Broncos, who are both 5-3. Above the Jets in the playoff standings are the Bengals (3-5) and Colts (4-4).

Realistically, the Jets must go 7-1 the rest of the season to make the playoffs. Beating the Bills and sweeping the Dolphins doesn’t seem realistic. I would expect them to lose at least one of those games. 

That means the Jets then need to beat the Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Jags and Rams. While realistic, especially if the Jets’ offense clicks the way it did against the Texans in the second half, when they scored three TDs, that’s also a tall task.

Personally, I wouldn’t bet the Jets to make the playoffs, even at +300 odds. If they were +400, I would consider it. That represents an implied probability of 20%, which is more in line with my math looking at their schedule for the rest of the year. 

The Jets are averaging 5.1 yards per play, which is 23rd in the NFL. They’re averaging 4.0 yards per rush, 28th in the NFL. They’re averaging 6.6 yards per catch, 23rd in the NFL. Even if those numbers improve across the board, they’re still a middling team prime for a loss any week. 

The Jets kept their season alive with the win over the Texans, and now they get a long break before heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. That’s a win for their fans. But they did it against a reeling Texans team on a short week and it took a once-in-a-lifetime catch by Wilson to make it happen. That’s not sustainable, even if it feels that way this morning. 

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