John Deere Classic Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions and Odds for TPC Deere Run

A longshot, two outright bets and a best bet for this week's PGA Tour event in the Quad Cities.

Keith Mitchell is a player to consider on the betting card. / Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re considering betting the John Deere Classic, it’s important to start with a simple fact: Betting favorites haven't won here recently. 

Sure, there’s a history of big names like Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau taking home the trophy, but over the last five years it’s been Michael Kim (+30000), Dylan Frittelli (+9000), Lucas Glover (+5000), J.T. Poston (+5000) and Sepp Straka (+6000) winning, none of whom entered the tournament anywhere close to the betting favorite. 

That doesn’t mean this trend will continue indefinitely. It’s just worth noting as we start to handicap. 

Patrick Cantlay was the betting favorite heading into the week, but he withdrew with an injury, vaulting Sungjae Im to the top of the board. Straka and Spieth are also among the favorites, but I won’t bet on either. Instead, I have a longish shot and mid-range guy I'm focused on, plus a few Top 10 bets.

Let’s take a look at the odds via DraftKings and then get into the handicapping. 

​​John Deere Classic Odds 

• Sungjae Im +1400
• Sepp Straka +1600
• Aaron Rai +2000
• Jordan Spieth +2200
• Denny McCarthy +2200
• Davis Thompson +2500
• Maverick McNealy +2800
• Keith Mitchell +2800
• Jason Day +3000
• J.T. Poston +3000
• Nick Dunlap +3500
• Adam Svensson +4000
• Seamus Power +4500
• Luke Clanton +4500
• Lucas Glover +4500
• Kevin Yu +4500

​​John Deere Classic longshot pick

Jhonattan Vegas Top 10 +650

Vegas has had a disappointing season, missing seven cuts and making only six. However, he’s made two straight cuts, is playing his most consistent golf of the season right now and is playing a course that suits his game, which makes me feel like there’s value here at +650. 

Vegas is 11th on tour in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 33rd in strokes-gained approach. This tournament is a birdie fest, and being able to hit it close is the key to success. Vegas has done that recently, shooting under par in six of his last eight rounds on tour. He finished T25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week with a 10-under score. 

The last time he played this event in 2021, Vegas finished T11, so he has some positive history at this course too. 

I wouldn’t break the bank on this bet, but Vegas is trending up at the right time to pounce. 

​​John Deere Classic prediction and best bet

The winning score at the John Deere Classic is going to be around 20 under based on recent history. That means we need to pick a player who can go low and stay there. Blow-ups and constant steps back won’t lead to a win, which is why I’m fading Spieth. He’s just too inconsistent this year. 

Instead, I’m going to stick with the longshot trend and pick one player who you might not have heard of before, and a second with the game needed to win. 

Ryo Hisatsune is +6000 at DraftKings, which I think is a bit low. He’s 31st in strokes-gained around the green, 51st in strokes-gained total and 60th in strokes-gained approach. Equally important to that consistency, he’s 37th on tour in birdie average and 36th in bogey avoidance. 

He shot 23 under at the American Express and 17 under at the Byron Nelson, proving he can go low. At the Rocket Mortgage last week, he was 9 under, but all of that came in the second and third rounds (65-67). 

He’s only 21 and this is his first time playing the John Deere. Despite that, he has the game that suits this course. 

Another player worth considering is Keith Mitchell at +2800. He missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage last week, but was 9 under and T10 at the RBC Canadian Open before that and shot 24 under at the American Express. 

He’s 4th in strokes-gained off-the-tee, 7th in strokes-gained approach, and 6th in strokes-gained tee-to-green. His 4.24 birdie average is 10th on Tour and he birdies 55% of par-5s. 

He finished T42 at the John Deere last year, but that was mostly because of a third-round 73. Outside that, he shot 68-67-67. He also finished 7th in 2018. That experience should help. 

In a watered-down field, it feels like anyone can win. I think Mitchell is the player to target, and my best bet is for him to finish Top 10 at +300 odds at DraftKings. I’ll also sprinkle a bit on him to win outright, but I like his Top 10 odds the best on the board. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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