Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 3

Jennifer Piacenti | Sep 17, 2024

Sep 16, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) celebrates win against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The reigning Super Bowl Champion Chiefs head to Atlanta to face the Falcons on Sunday Night Football.

The Falcons won on Monday Night in a surprising turn of events late in the fourth quarter, besting the Eagles, 22-21, winning as modest road underdogs. The Chiefs eeked out a win over the Bengals 26-25, also in the final moments of the fourth quarter, failing to cover as the home favorites.

The Chiefs offense with Patrick Mahomes has scored an average of 26.5 points per game this season. The Falcons, led by Kirk Cousins,  have scored just 16 on a per game basis.

The Chiefs defense has faced two tough offenses. They have allowed 22.5 points per game. The Falcons defense did a good job holding the Eagles in check, and they have alllowed an average of just 19 points per game to opponents this season. 

Chiefs vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Falcons +3.5
• Chiefs -3.5

Moneyline

• Falcons +145
• Chiefs -175

Total

• 46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Chiefs vs. Falcons How to Watch

• Date: Sunday September 22, 2024 
• Game Time: 8:20 pm EST 
• Venue: Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta
• How to Watch: NBC
• Falcons Record: 1-1
• Chiefs Record: 2-0

Chiefs vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• The Chiefs and the Falcons are each 1-1 ATS this year
• Both of the Chiefs games have gone over this season
• Both of the Falcons games have gone under
• Patrick Mahomes is 10-6 in Sunday Night games 
• Kirk Cousins is 4-4 on Sunday Night 

Chiefs vs. Falcons Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

• RB  Isaiah Pacheco - out 
• WR Hollywood Brown - out

Falcons Injury Report

• CB Antonio Hamilton, Sr. - out

Chiefs vs. Falcons Key Players to Watch

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice

Rice has been Mahomes’s favorite target this season, commanding a 30% target share and leading all Chiefs receivers with 178 receiving yards and 12 catches. The Falcons have limited opposing wideouts to an average of just 99 yards per game this season, but they have allowed the third-highest catch-rate in the league to the position (75.9%).  Devonta Smith caught seven of his ten targets vs. the Falcons on Monday night. Looks for Rice to exceed his catch prop, but be cautious on his receiving yards, as the Falcons have only allowed short passes so far for an average of just 6.83 yards per target. 

Falcons RB  Bijan Robinson

Kirk Cousins does not look 100%, and Bijan is the versatile weapon that is currently the heart of this offense.   Robinson has 100+ all-purpose yards in each of his first two matchups. Even vs. a tough Chiefs run defense, Robinson could rack up the yards through the air. Robinson has caught nine of his ten targets this season for 68 yards. The Chiefs have allowed just 3.80 yards per carry this season and will look to keep Bijan in check on the ground, but I’ll be interested in his receiving prop. The Chiefs have allowed 5.91 yards per target to opposing runners this year. 

Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

The Chiefs will be playing without Isaiah Pacheco, so their game plan may look different on Sunday night.  This should be a game where Travis Kelce finally gets going and I expect Rice to remain heavily targeted in the short passing game.  A long shot to Xavier Worthy could also expose the Falcons this weekend.   The Falcons won’t have it quite as easy as they did with Justin Fields in Week 1  and an Eagles team missing AJ Brown in Week 2. 

Atlanta was only able to put up 22 points on Monday night vs. a soft Philadelphia defense.    I don’t think a matchup with the Chiefs is what will get Kirk Cousins going. Look for the Chiefs defense to remain tough.  Atlanta is averaging just 16 points of offense per game, and I expect about the same on Sunday night. 

The Chiefs are just an all around better team, but I don’t like buying the hook. 

Instead, I’m going to pivot to the under.  I don’t think either of these teams will go on a scoring bonanza Sunday Night.

Those taking the under on the points totals have hit in nearly 70% of Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night games in 2023-24, and I see a similar trend playing out in this one.

Pick: Under 46.5