Kings vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Monday, Nov. 4 (Upset Alert?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Sacramento Kings-Miami Heat matchup in the NBA on Monday.

Sacramento Kings forward DeMar DeRozan. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Sacramento Kings hit the road on Monday night to play the Miami Heat, who are now 3-2 on the season and in the mix for a top spot in the East through their first five games.

The Kings have a new look this season with DeMar DeRozan in the fold, and they’ve posted one of the best net ratings (No. 6 in the league) through six games despite going just 3-3.

Meanwhile, Miami has gone just 1-2 straight up at home heading into this matchup. 

With Bam Adebayo coming off his best game of the season, can the Heat ride that momentum into this matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Monday’s contest. 

Kings vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Kings +2 (-112)
• Heat -2 (-108)

Moneyline

• Kings: +105
• Heat: -125

Total

• 225.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kings vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Nov. 4
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, NBC Sports California
• Kings record: 3-3
• Heat record: 3-2

Kings vs. Heat Injury Reports

Kings Injury Report

• Devin Carter – out
• Isaiah Crawford – out
• Orlando Robinson – out
• Kevin Huerter – questionable

Heat Injury Report

• Keshad Johnson – out
• Josh Christopher – out

Kings vs. Heat Key Players to Watch

Sacramento Kings

DeMar DeRozan: The Kings’ big offseason acquisition, DeRozan has been great so far this season, averaging 25.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 52.5 percent from the field. DeRozan has been especially good as of late, scoring 60 points over his last two games. 

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo: After a slow, slow start to the 2024-25 season, Bam Adebayo turned in his best game of the season against the Washington Wizards. Bam had 32 points, 14 rebounds and two assists while shooting 12-for-24 from the field. Miami needs Bam to be more aggressive going forward to compete for a top spot in the East. 

Kings vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

I think Sacramento may be undervalued in this game. 

The Kings did suffer a tough loss their last time out against the Toronto Raptors, but they haven’t lost a single game by more than four points so far this season.

With the Heat sitting at 2-3 against the spread overall and 1-2 straight up at home, I’m not sold on them as slight favorites in this matchup. 

The Kings match up pretty well with the Heat now that DeRozan is in the fold, and they’ve posted a top-10 offensive rating in the 2024-25 campaign.

Miami (19th in offensive rating) is a top-10 defense, something we’ve come to expect from Erik Spoelstra’s squad. 

Since the Heat have struggled against playoff caliber teams (losing to Orlando and New York) while beating up on the East’s bottom dwellers (Detroit, Charlotte and Washington), I think they’re a little overvalued in this game.

I’ll take the Kings to pull off an upset on Monday. 

Pick: Kings Moneyline (+105)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.