Kings vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 5

How to bet the Kings-Warriors matchup on Sunday night.

The Warriors are favored at home against the Kings. / Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

Are things starting to turn for the Golden State Warriors?

After a great start to the season, Golden State has been in a major slump, but it beat the Philadelphia 76ers late last week before knocking off the Memphis Grizzlies in an impressive win on Saturday.

The Warriors are now the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference heading into Sunday’s home matchup with the Sacramento Kings and Domantas Sabonis. The Kings fired head coach Mike Brown late last month, but the team has responded with three wins in a row to get to 16-19 on the season.

Oddsmakers have the Warriors favored on the second night of a back-to-back, as De’Aaron Fox is listed as doubtful for the Kings on Sunday.

Here’s a full breakdown of this game, including the latest odds, players to consider in the prop market, and my prediction. 

Kings vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Kings +3 (-108)
• Warriors -3 (-112)

Moneyline

• Kings: +124
• Warriors: -148

Total

• 224 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kings vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Bay Area, NBC Sports California
• Kings record: 16-19
• Warriors record: 18-16

Kings vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Kings Injury Report

• Isaiah Crawford – out
• De’Aaron Fox – doubtful
• Colby Jones – out
• Mason Jones – out
• Isaac Jones – out
• Keegan Murray – questionable

Warriors Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Kings vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

Sacramento Kings Best Prop Bet

• Malik Monk OVER 20.5 Points (-105)

Monk had a massive game in the Kings’ win over the Grizzlies, scoring 31 points on 20 shots. He should be in line for a bigger role on Sunday, as Fox’s absence may lead to Monk being the primary guard in the offense. 

This season, Monk is averaging 16.5 points per game while shooting 43.9 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from 3. He should see an uptick in his usage that could push him over this prop tonight. 

Golden State Warriors Best Prop Bet 

• Trayce Jackson-Davis UNDER 8.5 Rebounds (-135)

Jackson-Davis has cleared this total in three of his last four games, but this is a tough matchup against Domantas Sabonis and the Kings.

Sacramento ranks sixth in opponent rebounds per game and 10th overall in rebounding percentage. I can’t get to Jackson-Davis at this prop since he’s averaging just 5.9 rebounds per game in the 2024-25 season. 

Kings vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

This is a tricky matchup to handicap with Fox likely out and the Warriors playing the second night of a back-to-back. 

However, I do think there is a play to make on the total – especially if the Warriors end up sitting some players tonight.

So far this season, Golden State has played four back-to-backs, and it’s hit the UNDER in the second leg of those every time (4-0). Now, the total for this game is up at 224, but the engine of the Kings offense (Fox) is unlikely to play. 

On the road, the Kings have been a better UNDER team (8-6) than most in the league, and these two squads are seventh (Golden State) and 16th (Sacramento) in defensive rating this season.

I’d wait to see the Warriors’ final injury report before betting on this game, but don’t be shocked if it ends up being a lower-scoring matchup – especially since the Kings may slow down their offense without Fox leading the charge. 

Pick: UNDER 224 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.