Kirk Cousins to Win NFL MVP is the Best Value Bet You Can Place

No player presents better value to win NFL MVP than Kirk Cousins.

Jun 3, 2024; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) shown in action on the field during Falcons OTA at the Falcons Training facility. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

We have less than a month to go until the official start of the 2024 NFL season which means I get to go on one more short vacation until I strap myself in until the final whistle is blown at Super Bowl 59. Before I do that, I want to leave you with one of my favorite bets for the upcoming season; Kirk Cousins to win NFL MVP.

If you've already read my 32 Bets for 32 Teams article where I break down my favorite future for all 32 teams then you already know about this bet. For those of you who haven't read it or for anyone who wants to hear a bit more of my reasoning behind it, let's do a deep dive into this bold MVP wager.

Kirk Cousins MVP Odds

• Kirk Cousins to Win NFL MVP +4000

The above odds are available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Kirk Cousins is Top MVP Dark Horse Contender

Should Kirk Cousins be the MVP favorite? Absolutely not, but we're talking about betting value here and Cousins is way further down the board than he should be. Trevor Lawrence and Anthony Richardson are two of the names with better odds than Cousins, two quarterbacks who have never played at an MVP level and one who has only played a handful of NFL games.

Let's take a look at Cousins' recent numbers. He played in eight games in 2023 before going down with a season-ending injury. At the time that he suffered the injury, Cousins was leading the NFL in passing yards, averaging 291.4 per game. That's 20 more passing yards per game than the eventual passing leader, Tua Tagovailoa, finished with.

He also had a quarterback rating of 103.8. Only Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy finished with a better mark than that.

Now let's consider the situation he's in with Atlanta. He immediately steps into a role where he has everything he needs to succeed. He has pass-catching weapons in Drake London in Kyle Pitts. He has a dynamic running back who can catch balls out of the backfield in Bijan Robinson. He gets to play behind a top-five offensive line in the NFL, highlighted by arguably the top guard in the league in Chris Lindstrom. He also gets to play in an offensive system designed by the new coordinator, Zac Robinson.

If you don't know Robinson, he was with the Rams since 2019, serving as their pass game coordinator for the past two seasons. He played a huge role in the career revival of Matthew Stafford as well as the development of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the former of which won the receiving Triple Crown in 2021.

Now in Atlanta, Robinson is going to draw up an offensive scheme that's going to allow Cousins to be at his best and showcase his elite arm.

As one final cherry on top of my delicious sundae of an argument, toss in the fact the Falcons have by far the easiest schedule in the NFL this season based on their opponent's projected win totals.

So, what are the arguments against Cousins as a player worth an MVP bet at 40-1? The fact he's coming off an injury? The unproven narrative he doesn't show up for prime-time games? Nonsense. You can bet on one of the top names like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes if you want, but I'm here to chase value and I firmly believe no other player presents it better than Cousins at +4000.

Then again, maybe I'm just biased after I personally recruited him to this team.

If Kirk Cousins signs with the Falcons this offseason, I'd like 100% of credit.

Full interview: https://t.co/dKBMWUYqdZ pic.twitter.com/wRj1pwR0CU

— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) January 18, 2024

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.