Liberty vs. Aces Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Semifinals Game 3

Can the defending champs keep their season alive?

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

It’s hard to find a better spot to be in than the New York Liberty in the WNBA Semifinals. 

New York survived a late scare on Tuesday night at Barclays Center to hold off the Las Vegas Aces — 88-84 — and take a commanding 2-0 series lead.

Why is this so big? 

Well, WNBA teams that go up 2-0 in a best-of-five series are a perfect 18-0 all time. So, New York would have to have a historic collapse to miss the WNBA Finals this season. 

For the Aces, it’s going to have to be a one game at a time approach. 

The two-time defending champs had a costly turnover on an out of bounds play in the final seconds in Game 2, and now their backs are against the wall in Game 3.

The Aces are 0-5 against the Liberty in the regular season and playoffs in 2024,  but oddsmakers have them favored on Friday. 

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and my prediction with the Liberty aiming for a sweep. 

Liberty vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Liberty +3 (-112)
• Aces -3 (-108)

Moneyline

• Liberty: +124
• Aces: -148

Total

• 166 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Oct. 4
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Series: Liberty lead 2-0

Liberty vs. Aces Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

Aces Injury Report

• Kiah Stokes – day-to-day

The Aces may not list her on the injury report, but Jackie Young has been dealing with an undisclosed injury since the Olympic Break, according to Holly Rowe during the broadcast of Game 2. 

Liberty vs. Aces Key Players to Watch

New York Liberty

Sabrina Ionescu: Through four playoff games, Ionescu has scored 17, 36, 21 and 24 points, leading the Liberty to a 4-0 start. The star guard made some clutch plays down the stretch on Tuesday, and she finished the game with nine rebounds and five assists as well. She’s a player in targeting in the prop market for a points-assists-rebounds prop. 

Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson: Let’a be honest, Wilson has to be more aggressive early on after taking a step back in the first half on Tuesday. The league MVP still finished with 24 points, but to beat this Liberty team, the Aces need Wilson at her best on Friday. She has not scored more than 24 points in a single game this postseason. 

Liberty vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

I’m going to go down with a sinking ship, as I can’t see the Aces getting swept to end their season.

Las Vegas had multiple chances to win Game 2, but it was unable to close out the game strong, leading to a four-point road loss.

For those who bet Aces +3.5 in Game 2, it was a brutal beat, but I’m still not afraid of trusting Wilson, Young, Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum to get at least one game.

New York was a perfect 3-0 against the spread as an underdog during the regular season, which is a concern, but Las Vegas won 65 percent of its games at home. 

The two-time defending champs will keep their season alive tonight. 

Pick: Aces Moneyline (-148)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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