Liberty vs. Mercury WNBA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, Aug. 26 (Trust NY on Road)

Are the New York Liberty undervalued on the road on Monday?

New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) celebrates. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Liberty had a long winning streak snapped on Saturday, losing at home to the Connecticut Sun, but they’ll look to bounce back on the road on Monday against the No. 6-seeded Phoenix Mercury. 

All season long, the Liberty have struggled against the spread at home, going 5-11, but they’ve been a much better team on the road (10-4 against the spread). 

Could that be an issue for Diana Taurasi and the Mercury tonight?

Phoenix comes into this game as a five-point underdog as it looks to climb in the standings and avoid a run by the Atlanta Dream, Indiana Fever or Chicago Sky that could put its playoff position in jeopardy. 

With Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (questionable) potentially back for this game, can the Liberty build on their impressive 25-5 mark this season?

Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for Monday’s matchup. 

Liberty vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Liberty -5 (-110)
• Mercury +5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Liberty: -230
• Mercury: +190

Total

• 166.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Mercury How to Watch 

• Date: Monday, Aug. 26
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Footprint Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Liberty record: 25-5
• Mercury record: 16-14

Liberty vs. Mercury Injury Reports

New York Liberty Injury Report

• Betnijah Laney-Hamilton – questionable

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• Charisma Osborne – out
• Rebecca Allen – out

Liberty vs. Mercury Key Players to Watch

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart: In five games since the Olympic break, Stewie is averaging 21.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game while shooting 41.9 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from beyond the arc. The 3-point shooting is a pleasant surprise since Stewart is struggling from deep overall, shooting just 25.6 percent for the season. Can she keep this hot stretch going tonight? 

Phoenix Mercury

Kahleah Copper: One of the best scorers in the league this season, Copper is averaging 22.9 points per game while shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3-point range. Since the Olympic break, she’s scored 29, 32, seven, 22 and 16 points in five games. 

Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

It’s rare that we get a chance to buy low on this Liberty team, and I’m going to do so on Monday night.

Fresh off of a loss, the Liberty may not be getting as much love against another playoff-caliber team – and an elite home team – in the Mercury. 

Phoenix is 9-4 straight up and against the spread at home, cancelling out the Liberty’s impressive 10-4 ATS record away from Barclays Center. However, the Mercury are just 8-8 against the spread as underdogs, leaving the door open for a Liberty cover in this one.

New York and Phoenix are No. 2 and No. 3 in net rating over the last five games, but the Liberty (+15.7) are significantly better than the Mercury (+6.2) over that stretch. 

I am worried about Phoenix’s defense (No. 9 in defensive rating) against the No. 1 offense in the WNBA, especially since the Liberty have the No. 2 defensive rating in the league.

If Laney-Hamilton suits up, the Liberty simply are a much more talented roster. I’ll gladly lay the five points here with New York looking to bounce back. 

Pick: Liberty -5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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