Lions vs. Colts Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 12 (Impossible to Fade the Lions?)

Will the Lions' win streak continue?

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff is favored to win another game in Week 12. / Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions just keep winning – and they’re doing it in dominant fashion – heading into a Week 12 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts are fresh off of a huge win against the New York Jets in Anthony Richardson’s return to the lineup.

However, oddsmakers have set Richardson and company as 7.5-point underdogs at home in this matchup.

Can Dan Campbell’s Lions cover the spread?

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup, which will hopefully give bettors an idea of which side – or a total – to bet on Sunday.  

Lions vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Lions -7.5 (-105)
• Colts +7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Lions: -425
• Colts: +330

Total

• 50.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Lions are 8-2 against the spread this season, winning games by an average margin of 15.9 points per game. Meanwhile, the Colts are 2-1 against the spread as home underdogs so far in 2024. 

Lions vs. Colts Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is on the UNDER in this game, as he thinks the Lions could be due for some regression on offense. He broke down why in his Road to 272 – where he bets every NFL game, every week: 

The Lions have averaged 33.6 points per game this season, which may lead you to believe their 9-1 record is due to their offense, but I'd make the argument it's been their defense that has been more impressive. The Detroit defense ranks second in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and they're allowing just 17.7 points per game on the season.

A total should only be in the 50s if it's a game that features two teams whose offense is significantly better than their defenses and I simply don't think that's the case in this one. While the argument could be made for the Lions, it's been objectively true the Colts' defense has been far better than their offense. Their offense is 22nd in EPA per play but 11th in opponent EPA per play.

The Indianapolis defense isn't elite but they're above average in almost every metric and don't deserve to be in a game that has a total set in the 50s. I think an uncharacteristically slow game for the Lions offense is in the cards.

While MacMillan has some faith in the Colts’ defense, I’m worried about Richardson being able to put together another big offensive showing.

The young quarterback is still completing just 48.5 percent of his passes, and the Lions have been red hot on offense. If they do keep scoring at a high rate, I don’t think the Colts are efficient enough to hold up.  

Final Score Prediction: Lions 27, Colts 19

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