Lions vs. Vikings Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 7 (Sam Darnold is Due For Regression)

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

Oct 6, 2024; Tottenham, ENG; Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Sam Darnold (14) calls a play in the 2nd Quarter against New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images / Shaun Brooks-Imagn Images

Before the season began, it'd be surprising to find out that one of the most anticipated games of the Week 7 slate would be an NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.

If we were to set the odds for this game in the offseason, the Lions would have been significant favorites. Now, after a hot 5-0 start, it's the surprisingly impressive Vikings who enter this game as the betting favorites.

In this article, we don't care who wins the game. Instead, we're taking a look at a couple of player props that are worth betting on. Let's dive into it.

Lions vs. Vikings Player Props

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Sam Darnold UNDER 259.5 Pass Yards (-113)
• David Montgomery UNDER 51.5 Rush Yards (-113)

Sam Darnold UNDER 259.5 Pass Yards (-113)

The public notion is that the Lions' secondary is weak and will be able to be exploited by the Vikings' pass attack, but I wouldn't count on that being the case. Detroit's defense ranks eighth in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing just 6.1 yards per throw. They're also eighth in opponent dropback EPA, so don't assume Darnold is going to have a big game through the air.

It's also worth noting Darnold has only been averaging 222.2 pass yards per game this season, only reaching 260+ pass yards twice in five games.

I feel comfortable taking the UNDER on his passing yards total on Sunday.

David Montgomery UNDER 51.5 Rush Yards (-113)

The reason for the Vikings' success this season has been their defense, specifically their ability to shut down their opponent's run games. They have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry while also ranking third in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. That's bad news for the Lions' run game.

If you're going to bet on one of the two Lions' running backs to go under their rush yards total, I'd lean toward Montgomery has is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season compared to Gibbs, who's averaging 5.3. Montgomery has also seen his snap down go down over the past three weeks, from 51%, to 40%, to 31%.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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