Lipscomb vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 20, 2025

Feb 25, 2025; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Curtis Jones (5) drives to the basket around Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Bryce Thompson (1) during the second half at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

Iowa State will begin its quest for the National Championship as the No. 3 seed in the South Region against No. 14 seed Lipscomb. 

The Cyclones have been up and down over the last few months, and now won’t have star guard Keshon Gilbert for the NCAA Tournament. Can Iowa State round into form around what’s been an elite team all year? 

Lipscomb enters as a potent three-point shooting team from the ASUN Conference, but aren’t given much of a chance in this one. 

Here’s how to bet this first round matchup. 

Lipscomb vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Lipscomb: +14.5 (-120)
• Iowa State: -14.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Lipscomb: +740
• Iowa State: -1250

Total: 143.5 (Over -106/Under -114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Lipscomb vs. Iowa State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, March 21
• Game Time: 1:30 PM EST
• Venue: Fiserv Forum 
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Lipscomb Record: 25-9
• Iowa State State Record: 24-9

Lipscomb vs. Iowa State Key Players to Watch

Lipscomb

Jacob Ognacevic: The senior forward is lights out from the perimeter, shooting 41% from 3-point range this season and 49% from deep in ASUN play. He’ll look to feast off an aggressive Iowa State defense that can be played out of position along the perimeter. 

Iowa State

Curtis Jones: With Gilbert out, expect more reps for Jones, who scored 31 points in the Cyclones most recent game, a tight loss to BYU. The second-year Cyclones player has been outstanding in a heightened role this season, shooting 37% from deep while averaging 17 points, four rebounds and over two assists. 

Lipscomb vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Even with Gilbert out for this one, Iowa State should have a relatively straightforward path to covering this point spread. 

T.J. Otzelberger told reporters tonight that Iowa State's Keshon Gilbert (muscle strain) will not be available moving forward.

Has not played since 3/12.

Averages 13.4 PPG.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 16, 2025

Lipscomb is incredibly leveraged on its three-point shooting, paced by Ognacevic’s three-point dominance, but the team will run into a buzzsaw against the imposing no-middle defense that the Cyclones run. 

This will surely be the most ball pressure that Lipscomb has seen this season, and it will lead to clunky results from the team’s continuity based sets on offense. 

Meanwhile, the loss of Gilbert likely won’t be felt in this one as the Lions won’t have the ability to stay in front of the likes of Tamin Lipsey or Jones as the players get downhill against the conservative ball pressure they are set to face. Lipscomb is outside the top 100 in turnover rate and is in the bottom half of the country in field goal percentage allowed at the rim, per Haslametrics. 

I expect Iowa State to turn defense into offense and feast off the out-matched ASUN champs and cover with relative ease. 

PICK: Iowa State -14.5 (-102, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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