Louisiana vs. TCU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for New Mexico Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 23, 2024

Nov 2, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) passes the ball against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Louisiana couldn’t realize its season goal of winning the Sun Belt Championship on its home field as injuries mounted in the title game but now face a Power Four opponent in TCU in the New Mexico Bowl in hopes of finishing the season on a high note. 

The Horned Frogs enjoyed a bounceback campaign with a high-octane offense in 2024, and will look for a ninth win against a potentially short-handed Ragin’ Cajun team that had to finish its league title game with third-string quarterback, freshman Daniel Beale, who had to step in after backup Chandler Fields was carted off. 

How will Louisiana show up in this matchup with a double-digit point spread? Here’s our full betting preview for the 2024 New Mexico Bowl!

Louisiana vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Louisiana: +12.5 (-110)
• TCU: -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Louisiana: +360
• TCU: -480

Total: 59.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Louisiana vs. TCU How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 28th
• Game Time: 2:15 PM EST
• Venue: University Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Louisiana Record: 10-3
• TCU Record: 8-4

Louisiana vs. TCU Key Players to Watch

Louisiana

Daniel Beale: The freshman was thrust into duty against Marshall in the Sun Belt title game after Fields left with an injury after the backup stepped in for Ben Wooldridge a few weeks back. The quarterback room is in flux, but if it’s Beale, the hope is that more practice can lead to better results. The freshman completed nine of his 24 pass attempts with an interception in the 31-3 SBC title game loss. 

TCU

Josh Hoover: The TCU signal-caller finished the season with the seventh most passing yards in the country, 3,697, with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Hoover has a big arm and a ton of talent around him as he looks to tie a bow on a prolific offensive season for the Horned Frogs. 

Louisiana vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

This line implies that the Ragin’ Cajun will be short-handed in this one with the high likelihood that Beale will be under center for the team. 

We saw the drop-off in the Sun Belt Championship Game, and while head coach Michael Desormeaux can gameplan better for this one, there will be a significant talent gap here. 

For what it’s worth, Louisiana has had an elite rushing game all season, ranking top 25 in the country in EPA/Rush, which is the weakest part of the TCU defense, which is 117th in EPA/Rush. 

Further, TCU struggled as a favorite and justifying expectations to dispose of an opponent, going 3-5 against the spread as a favorite and 2-4 when laying more than a touchdown this season. So, we have some prior data points of the team struggling to back up lofty goals set by oddsmakers. 

However, given the state of flux on the Louisiana side, I can only lay it with TCU, who can take the top off of a Louisiana defense that has the worst EPA/Rush metric in the country and will struggle to slow down the elite skill position players around Hoover.  

When the market becomes available, I’m interested in the TCU team total over, which is implied to be at 35.5, something TCU had hit in five games. However, the team is regularly around that number, getting to 34 four other times. 

PICK: TCU -12.5, TCU Team Total OVER 35.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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