Louisville vs. Boston College Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 9

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Oct 19, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Tyler Shough (9) looks to pass against the Miami Hurricanes during the first quarter at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Louisville missed an opportunity to announce itself as an ACC contender in Week 8 but now must turn around on a short week to face Boston College on the road. 

The Eagles are unwinding at the moment as well, losers of two straight games in ACC play, and can’t seem to avoid turnovers as quarterback Thomas Castellanos struggles to protect the rock of late. With a slight rest advantage, can Castellanos find his form at home? 

Louisville is reeling after dropping three of four but has received the nod from the oddsmakers as considerable favorites. 

Here’s how to bet it. 

Louisville vs. Boston College Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Louisville: -6.5 (-120)
• Boston College: +6.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Louisville: -250
• Boston College: +202

Total

• 53.5 (Over -106/Under -114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Louisville vs. Boston College How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 25th
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Alumni Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Louisville Record: 4-3
• Boston College Record: 4-3

Louisville vs. Boston College Key Players to Watch

Louisville 

Tyler Shough: Despite a loss against Miami, Shough was stellar in the game. The transfer quarterback completed nearly 60% of his passes with 342 yards and four touchdowns. On the season, Shough has fit into coach Jeff Brohm’s downfield passing attack well. He has 15 big-time throws to only four turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. 

Boston College 

Thomas Castellanos: Castellanos is regressing as the season goes on. Maybe it's due in part to the injury he suffered in the Michigan State win, but overall on the season he only has seven big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays. While he is an up-and-down player, Castellanos is lacking consistency in Bill O'Brien's system after having 17 BTT to 24 TWP plays last season. He also has six fumbles this season, losing it three times. 

Louisville vs. Boston College Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams profile as over groups given their propensity for explosive plays both on offense and defense. 

The Boston College offense has been hit-or-miss this season, but it has been able to connect on chunk plays often, ranking top 10 in explosive pass offense this season behind a sturdy offensive line. Castellanos has been shaky with the pigskin, but there have been big plays available through the air. 

Against Louisville’s defense, I’m optimistic O’Brien can scheme up a few deep passes for his quarterback. The Cards' defense is 85th in EPA/Pass after allowing 30 or more to Notre Dame, SMU, and Miami in the last three games. The team is struggling to make turnover-worthy plays, outside the top 100 in havoc, so this can be a good landing spot for a sputtering BC offense. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles defense is regressing quickly. The unit is outside the top 100 in tackles for loss and lacks the difference makers in the secondary to stick with the likes of Caullin Lacy and Ja’Corey Brooks. Louisville is a top-15 offense in terms of EPA/Play and is averaging more than 12 yards per snap, this is an advantageous matchup for Brohm’s offense. 

I’m expecting a handful of busted coverages on both sides and a high scoring affair on Friday night. 

PICK: OVER 53.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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