LSU vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 12

Reed Wallach | Nov 12, 2024

Nov 9, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (13) calls for the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

LSU’s College Football Playoffs hopes are all but gone after a blowout loss at home to Alabama, but can the team finish the season on a high note? 

The Tigers are in Gainesville on Saturday afternoon to face rival Florida, who will hope to get promising starter DJ Lagway back on the field after suffering a hamstring injury that cost him an opportunity to play in the Gators' Week 11 loss at Texas. 

LSU will look to get the offense on track after getting shut down against Alabama, can Garrett Nussmeier return to his midseason form against a shaky Gators defense?

LSU vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• LSU: -4.5 (-110)
• Florida: +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• LSU: -178
• Florida: +146

Total: 54.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

LSU vs. Florida How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 16th 
• Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• LSU Record: 6-3
• Florida Record: 4-5

LSU vs. Florida Key Players to Watch

LSU

Garrett Nussmeier: At halftime of the Texas A&M game in Week 9, it appeared that Nussmeier was about to enter the Heisman Trophy conversation, but he has been out of sorts ever since as LSU has scored 19 points over the last six quarters. Nussmeier continues to showcase a big arm, and hopefully, the drop in competition suits him and the Tigers' pass-happy offense well. 

Florida

DJ Lagway: Lagway was reportedly close to playing last week despite being carted off the week prior against Georgia, and his status is up in the air for this one. The Gators desperately need Lagway on the field as third-stringer Aidan Warner is far from SEC caliber. Lagway has showcased a big arm at times as the freshman has engineered more than capable of play. 

LSU vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

With Lagway’s status up in the air, as well as the psyche of the LSU team on the heels of two straight SEC losses, there are a ton of questions in this game. 

Instead of trying to handicap injuries, I believe the most likely outcome in this game is the Tigers offense getting on track. 

The Tigers struggled to hold up against strong pass rushes from Texas A&M and Alabama, but Florida doesn’t pose a similar threat, an average defensive line that is 75th in pass rush grading according to Pro Football Focus. 

With plenty of time, Nussmeier should feast on a shaky Florida secondary. The Gators are 93rd in coverage grading and 88th in explosive pass defense, not able to keep a lid on this talented LSU pass-catching group. 

The Gators have faced a brutal schedule, arguably the toughest in the nation, and have struggled over the balance of the season against the best offenses in the country. In six games against offenses that are inside the top 50 in EPA/Play, the Gators have allowed more than 32 points per game. 

This should be an opportunity for the Tigers offense to get on track and put up a similar mark to the average with the offense checking in 42nd in EPA/Play. I’ll grab the Bayou Bengals’ team total over. 

PICK: LSU Team Total OVER 32.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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