Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Finals Game 1

Who has the edge in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals?

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The WNBA Finals are upon us!

After taking down the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces, the New York Liberty are looking to close out a season where they dominated from start to finish, going 32-8 in the regular season and 5-1 so far in the playoffs. 

They’ll take on the No. 2-seeded Minnesota Lynx, who beat the Connecticut Sun in five games in the WNBA Semifinals. Earlier this season, the Lynx beat the Liberty to win the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup, and now they’ll look to finish off a storybook season with a Finals victory. 

Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, and others provide a ton of star power in this series, but it was the Lynx who won three of the four games (counting the Commissioner’s Cup) in the regular season between these squads. 

Still, oddsmakers have the Liberty favored by six points at home in Game 1. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my best bet for Thursday night’s showdown. 

Lynx vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Lynx +6 (-108)
• Liberty -6 (-112)

Moneyline

• Lynx: +210
• Liberty: -265

Total

• 159.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Lynx vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 10
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Lynx vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

Lynx vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier: Collier dominated the final three games of the semifinals against the Connecticut Sun, putting up 26, 29, and 27 points in those matchups – recording three straight double-doubles. Now, she gets a look at a Liberty team that she had 18 points and 13 rebounds against in their final meeting of the regular season. 

New York Liberty 

Breanna Stewart: Two-time WNBA Finals MVP Breanna Stewart is seeking her third title after losing in the Finals last season. New York has been the best team in the league all season, and it finally got past the Las Vegas Aces in the playoffs. Now, Stewart will look to build on her 19-point showing in Game 4 against Vegas in the Finals. 

Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

There are several trends in Minnesota’s favor on Thursday night, even though the Liberty have the rest advantage since they closed their series out in four games in the semifinals.

This season, the Lynx are 16-7 against the spread on the road, 12-4 against the spread as underdogs, and 30-18 against the spread overall. 

On the Liberty side, they are just 7-17-1 against the spread at home, a concerning mark when the team is laying six points in Game 1. 

In the regular season meetings (non-Commissioner's Cup) between these teams, the Lynx won by 17 at home, nine on the road, and lost by nine on the road as well. 

The Liberty offense is No. 1 in the league, but Minnesota has the No. 2 defensive rating, which should make this an interesting series. 

If anyone can keep up with the vaunted New York offense, it may be the Lynx. They led the league in the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage, and they’ve shown in the playoffs that they’re not fully reliant on Collier having a big game to win.

Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, and Alanna Smith have all come up big in the postseason, and Minnesota has some impressive depth on the roster that wore the Sun down in the semis. 

New York may end up winning this game, but it certainly hasn’t been automatic against the spread at home. 

I’ll take the points and expect a closer game in the opening matchup of the WNBA Finals. 

Pick: Lynx +6 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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