Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WNBA Finals Game 5

Who will win the WNBA title on Sunday night?

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Is there anything better than a winner-take-all matchup in the WNBA Finals? 

That’s what we have on Sunday night after the Minnesota Lynx forced a Game 5 with the New York Liberty on Friday night. 

This series has been everything that fans and bettors could have asked for. Three games have been decided by one possession, one has gone to overtime and two have game-winning shots/free throws in the final seconds. 

Oddsmakers have set the Lynx as six-point underdogs in Game 5 against the Liberty, but these teams have played tough matchups all season long, splitting the first four games with a home win and a road win each. 

There’s a lot to consider in this matchup, but I’m betting on a side for Sunday’s contest.

Let’s dive into the odds, key players to watch, and my prediction with a WNBA champion set to be crowned tonight. 

Lynx vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Lynx +6 (-115)
• Liberty -6 (-105)

Moneyline

• Lynx: +220
• Liberty: -270

Total

• 156.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Lynx vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 20
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 2-2

Lynx vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

• None to report

Note: Alanna Smith has been banged up in this series, but she’s played through the injury. In Game 4, Smith started and played 30 minutes, putting up 12 points and seven rebounds on 5-of-9 shooting from the field. 

Liberty Injury Report

• None to report

Lynx vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Lynx

Kayla McBride: The veteran sharpshooter has been a difference-maker for the Lynx in this series because of her ability to stretch the floor. McBride has scored 19 or more points in three of the four games in this series, putting up 19 on 6-of-15 shooting (3-for-6 from 3) in Game 4. If she shoots the 3 at a high rate, the Lynx are tough to beat. 

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart: The Liberty needs Stewart to show up and have a big game on Sunday. In Game 4, Stewie had one of her worst games of the season, shooting just 5-for-21 from the field and 0-for-4 from beyond the arc. In the two games New York has lost in this series, Stewart is just 11-for-42 from the field. If she’s just a little better than that – New York should win Game 5. 

Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

So far in these Finals, three of the four games in this series have been decided by one score, so it’s hard to lay six points with the Liberty – even at home.

Minnesota covered in Game 1 – winning outright – in New York, and the Liberty have struggled mightily at home this season, going 8-18-1 against the spread.

Even though the Liberty have the No. 1 offense in the WNBA, they haven’t had a game where all three of their stars – Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Ionescu – are truly clicking.

Since Minnesota is No. 2 in the WNBA in defensive rating and No. 1 in 3-point percentage, I expect it to hang around in this matchup. The Lynx as a franchise are 5-2 when facing elimination in the WNBA Finals – an insane mark that they added to in Game 4. 

I expect this to be a close game on Sunday. 

Pick: Lynx +6 (-115)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.